In early trading across Asia and London on Monday, financial markets saw an uptick following reports of potential ceasefire discussions between the United States and Iran. Bitcoin reached a weekly peak at $69,350 in the morning and was later recorded at $69,245, marking a 3.5% increase for the day based on CoinGecko data. Concurrently, oil prices dipped by 1.4% from their Friday closing figures, while Japan’s Nikkei index climbed 0.85%, and S&P 500 futures ascended by 0.64%. Gold remained relatively stable near a breakeven point.
This movement in the markets was spurred by a Reuters report indicating that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were contemplating a possible 45-day ceasefire to end ongoing hostilities permanently. According to Reuters, Pakistan orchestrated a potential framework for peace, which requires agreement by Monday. The plan involves an electronically signed memorandum of understanding facilitated through Pakistan as the sole intermediary.
The update followed a controversial message from U.S. President Donald Trump on TruthSocial Sunday, where he announced that Tuesday would see significant strikes in Iran. He stated, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” before concluding with “Praise be to Allah.”
Ekko An of Seoul-based Tiger Research told Decrypt that Bitcoin’s rise was influenced more by ceasefire reports than Trump’s statements. The market has become skeptical of the president’s comments due to their lack of coordination, leading it to rely on external signals for price movements.
Crypto short positions exceeding $200 million were liquidated in a 24-hour span—four times the amount of longs, according to CoinGlass data. Derek Lim of Caladan described this as a “textbook short squeeze.” Given the market’s extreme fear sentiment, it was ripe for a reversal, he noted.
Additional factors like Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF launch on April 8 with a lower fee than Blackrock IBIT contributed to Bitcoin’s surge. Yet, despite potential gains in risk assets, concerns about the Strait of Hormuz persist.
“Reopening Hormuz would reduce oil risk premiums, prompting forward rate cut expectations and re-leveraging from equities to crypto,” Lim explained. “Oil drops first, rates reprice, then risk assets rally.” He warned that a ceasefire without meaningful normalization could lead to a temporary rally that might fade within days. This pattern has occurred three times since late March, he added.
Prediction market Myriad, under Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, indicates persistent uncertainty. User sentiment shows growing optimism for a U.S./Iran ceasefire in the first half of the year, with chances increasing by over 10% though remaining broadly negative at 45%. Confidence that more than 15 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz before May also rose nearly 7% to 60%.
Currently, Myriad users predict a 46% chance of Bitcoin rallying to $84,000 and an 83% probability of crude oil reaching $120. Analysts interviewed by Decrypt acknowledged that Bitcoin could retest $80,000 if talks succeed, but warned that failure might see it drop to $60,000.