Current geopolitical tensions have intensified as President Donald Trump warned on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not comply with U.S. demands by 8 p.m. ET. This warning is linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could prevent destruction.
Stock market futures showed early signs of stress: S&P 500 futures dipped by 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%, and Dow futures dropped by 142 points before trading began. Oil prices surged in response, with WTI crude climbing above $115 per barrel and Brent exceeding $110—a spike of over 70% in the past month due to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil supply since late February.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell by 2% to $68,557, while Ethereum experienced a 2.7% drop as investors brace for potential conflict escalation. The market sentiment suggests that Bitcoin may not serve as a reliable safe haven in times of war panic.
On the prediction platform Myriad, traders are assigning only a 24.1% probability to the collapse of the Iranian regime before October. This implies expectations of either an unexpected move by Trump or an extended conflict without resolution.
Bitcoin’s recent performance shows three failed recovery attempts after significant losses since last October, each setting a lower high and finding a lower bottom. The cryptocurrency closed Q1 2026 with its worst quarterly results since 2018, down 27%, due to war tensions, tariffs, and Federal Reserve policies dampening risk appetite.
The technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for Bitcoin traders. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) indicate a “death cross,” with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day, signaling a continuing downward trend without signs of reversal. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.8 suggests market indecision and lack of strong directional momentum.
Bitcoin bulls might find some hope in the low ADX values as potential indicators for a trend reversal; however, confirmation from other metrics is lacking. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 47.9, reflecting a neutral stance with slight overselling. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator points to building negative momentum.
The technical chart analysis reveals a pattern of descending highs and support breaches, suggesting further declines if Bitcoin falls below $65,000. On Myriad, there’s a 57% probability predicted for a drop to $55,000 versus a 43% chance of an uptick to $84,000. Additionally, 66% believe that crypto will not recover by May 31.
Despite these bearish signals, some analysts argue Bitcoin is in a “bottoming phase” after dropping over 45% from its peak in October. However, bullish confirmation would require surpassing the $75,000 mark decisively and shifts in key technical indicators such as ADX and EMAs, which have yet to materialize.
The information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.