Following President Trump’s declaration of a two-week conditional ceasefire with Iran, Bitcoin saw a significant increase alongside broader financial markets on Tuesday.
The cryptocurrency reached its peak at $72,379 Wednesday morning before stabilizing around $71,610, marking a 3.5% rise over the past day as reported by CoinGecko. This surge resulted in the liquidation of $425 million worth of short crypto positions and an additional $170 million in long positions, according to CoinGlass data. Altcoins such as Zcash, LayerZero, and Ethereum experienced double-digit gains.
The S&P 500 index rose over 3.6% to $6,838, just shy of its all-time high at $7,043. Similar upward trends were observed in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI indices, while U.S. oil prices fell more than 22%, dropping from above $117 per barrel to $91.
In a TruthSocial post on Wednesday, Trump detailed that the ceasefire was agreed upon after discussions with Pakistani leaders, contingent upon Iran’s “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” The agreement allows Iran and Oman to collect fees from ships passing through the strait, which would fund reconstruction efforts.
Critics labeled this as another instance of “TACO”—”Trump Always Chickens Out”—following his earlier softened threats that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the Strait. Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and CEO of WeFi, highlighted to Decrypt that this pause could enhance global crypto adoption, especially for stablecoins, potentially driving a significant market-wide rise.
However, skepticism remains about the ceasefire’s durability beyond two weeks, according to Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue. While some see it as a pragmatic move calming markets, others argue it undermines U.S. credibility and deterrence by reducing maximalist rhetoric to temporary solutions.
The ceasefire mirrors previous trade and foreign policy patterns, offering immediate relief—”better TACO Tuesday than World War III”—but leaving core issues unresolved, particularly as the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon where Israeli airstrikes continue. Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, noted that market jitters persist but sentiment suggests “nothing ever happens.”
Despite these concerns, ETFinflows offer some hope yet are tempered by a broader risk-off sentiment. D’Anethan believes many might view current levels not as the cycle’s bottom but as an opportunity for long-term investors to average in.
On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users now assign a 55% probability of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 next, up from 43% prior to the ceasefire. There’s also an 88% chance that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will exceed 15 before May—up from 65% yesterday.
Sakharov advised caution regarding upcoming macro events, noting potential impacts on U.S. CPI and economic growth forecasts. On Tuesday, regulatory progress was made as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation approved a proposal to implement GENIUS Act requirements for stablecoins, enhancing trust through mandated 1:1 backing with hard cash.
While the two-week ceasefire offers temporary relief, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain, dependent on the ceasefire’s longevity and unfolding macroeconomic data.