According to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may find its ultimate bear market bottom near $55,000. The firm emphasizes that such market troughs typically develop over several months rather than through a single sharp sell-off event.
CryptoQuant points to Bitcoin’s realized price-historically a strong support level during downturns-as a key indicator of the potential bottom. At present, Bitcoin trades more than 25% above this level. In prior bear cycles, prices fell 24% below the realized price following the FTX collapse and dropped 30% below it during the 2018 downturn, the firm notes. After these thresholds were reached, Bitcoin usually entered a four- to six-month base-building phase.
The firm also cites sustained large daily realized losses as evidence that a structural bottom has not yet been reached. On Feb. 5, when Bitcoin dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded $5.4 billion in realized daily losses-the highest since March 2023, when losses hit $5.8 billion. This figure also surpasses the $4.3 billion loss recorded shortly after FTX’s collapse in November 2022. Despite these significant losses, CryptoQuant maintains that a bottom is not imminent.
“Monthly cumulative realized losses in Bitcoin terms remain far below those associated with prior bear market lows-currently 0.3 million BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market,” the firm adds.
Valuation metrics also suggest room for further decline. The MVRV ratio-comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value-has yet to enter the extreme undervaluation zone typical of past bear market bottoms. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator has not approached the roughly 20% unrealized loss level seen at previous cycle lows.
Long-term holder behavior further indicates the absence of full capitulation. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders are currently selling near breakeven, a stark contrast to the 30%–40% losses they absorbed in earlier bear market bottoms. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit, whereas cycle lows have historically seen that figure drop to between 45% and 50%.
The firm also notes that its proprietary Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase, not the Extreme Bear Phase-the latter having historically signaled the onset of a bottoming process. That extreme phase typically spans several months, reinforcing the idea that bear market floors take time to form.
Earlier this week, Standard Chartered revised its short-term crypto outlook, warning that Bitcoin could dip to $50,000 before staging a recovery by year-end.