For the past two years, discussions about stablecoins’ role in payments have centered on their use at checkout: will consumers prefer wallets over cards? Companies like Visa, Stripe, and Mastercard are betting big. Visa has integrated USDC for settlements, Stripe acquired Bridge, and Mastercard is set to acquire BVNK.
These moves indicate that these firms view stablecoins as a foundational layer for settlement and liquidity beneath existing payment systems. Whoever controls this layer might dictate the economics of future payments. Chainalysis predicts adjusted stablecoin volume at $28 trillion in 2025, potentially reaching $719 trillion by 2035 with aggressive growth.
The question is whether these major payment companies can integrate stablecoin settlements into their own frameworks early enough to maintain control over fees, flows, and cross-border transactions as regulations evolve. McKinsey and Artemis estimate actual stablecoin payments at roughly $390 billion per year, a figure supported by BCG’s range of $350-$550 billion annually, excluding non-economic and trading activities.
At these levels, stablecoins account for about 2.3% of Visa’s projected $17 trillion payment volume in 2025. Stablecoins can alter settlement economics even at this penetration rate because the infrastructure for settlement is distinct from that used for checkout.
Visa started USDC settlements in December 2025 within the U.S., expanding to a global annualized run rate of $4.6 billion by March 25 across over 130 stablecoin-linked card programs in more than 50 countries. Visa aims to modernize treasury operations and enhance settlement efficiency, extending these goals through its Canton Network.
By March 2026, Bridge-enabled cards were operational in 18 countries with plans for expansion. Stripe’s February 24, 2025 annual letter reported stablecoin payments doubling to approximately $400 billion, with around 60% being B2B transactions, and Bridge’s volume quadrupling. Bridge received conditional OCC approval as a national trust bank.
Mastercard announced in March 2026 its agreement to acquire BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, citing digital currency payment use cases at over $350 billion in 2025. They see opportunities in improving cross-border remittances, payouts, P2P transfers, and B2B payments.
The Federal Reserve noted stablecoin market capitalization reached $317 billion as of April 6, 2026, up by over 50% from early 2025. The GENIUS Act was enacted in July 2025 to provide a legal framework for institutional adoption. Citi’s September 2025 projection estimated stablecoin issuance at $1.9 trillion by 2030.
The future hinges on whether compliance infrastructure can accommodate enterprise-scale stablecoin settlements swiftly. Visa and Bridge are targeting over 100 countries by year-end, with Stripe and Bridge aiming for regulated custody and reserve management. If enterprises integrate stablecoin settlements into routine operations, the migration to on-chain rails could exceed any single forecast.
Citi’s $1.9 trillion issuance projection might be a minimum in such a scenario, benefiting firms that control orchestration, compliance, reserves, and interoperability standards. The bear case suggests open stablecoin rails remain fragmented, allowing incumbents to incorporate these functionalities as proprietary features. The Fed flagged complexities like vertical integration and opacity as risks.
The contest for economic capture is not about owning the card but about controlling money movement through orchestration, compliance, reserves, FX management, and standards. Visa focuses on settlement and card-issuing orchestration; Stripe/Bridge targets developer APIs and B2B infrastructure; and Mastercard aims at cross-border corridors. The pivotal battle will be over who secures these back-end structures.