In the aftermath of the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin (BTC) surged from approximately $67,000 to $72,000, marking a 7.5% increase that reduced volatility and improved sentiment in risk assets. However, according to Glassnode’s April 8 Week On-chain report, this rebound still aligns with patterns typical of a bear market bounce. BTC remains within a bear market value zone, with the pivotal level being $81,600—the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. This represents the collective breakeven point for Bitcoin acquired in recent months and is crucial to shift market dynamics from mere rallies to sustained recovery.
Below this threshold, recent buyers experience losses, and each rally into this range typically faces supply pressure from holders eager to sell near their breakeven points. The ceasefire mitigated macro shocks, compressing options market volatility with short-dated implied vol dropping to the low 40s and a six-month tenor stabilizing around 45%. Despite initial optimism, Reuters reported on April 9 that the truce appeared fragile as oil prices rebounded and broader risk sentiment softened within a day.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis since early 2026, currently oscillating between the True Market Mean and Realized Price. Glassnode identifies the $69,000-$71,500 zone as a support shelf where dealer positioning shows concentrated long gamma, potentially absorbing near-term selling.
Despite BTC trading slightly above $72,000 at press time, it remains below the $78,000 True Market Mean, which serves as an upper bound for any relief rally. Glassnode’s AVIV Ratio stands at 0.92, indicating a comparable bear market period to May-June 2022 and significantly higher than late 2022 capitulation lows.
Binance’s 30-day relative spot volume remains under its baseline of 1.0, suggesting weak organic demand. US spot ETF inflows have modestly turned positive over a 14-day span, ending an extended outflow period, yet April 7 and 8 still reflected negative figures. Futures volume has contracted significantly on a 30-day basis, with options skew favoring puts as traders continue to hedge against downside risks.
Glassnode describes the current market scenario as a stabilization amidst thin participation. The firm posits that while catastrophic downside is less imminent, a move towards $78,000 appears plausible but questions its durability. Below $81,600, recent buyers are incurring losses, creating constraints on upward momentum and making rallies within this range vulnerable to distribution pressures.
Long-term holders have been liquidating over 4,000 BTC daily since November 2025. Cooling these figures towards under 1,000 BTC per day, coupled with reclaiming $81,600, would signal a genuine market regime shift.
In the bull scenario, if BTC recaptures $81,600 and ETF inflows expand while futures participation increases, it could confirm a transition towards pre-bull recovery. Conversely, in the bear case, losing support below $69,000-$71,500 could mean trapped-holder supply overwhelms weak demand, relegating the current bounce to just another volatility event.
The ceasefire has reduced near-term volatility but hasn’t significantly bolstered sustained demand improvement. Realized and implied volatilities suggest a calm market that remains far from bullish. For a durable breakout, expanding volume, strong ETF flows, and speculative futures curves are necessary. Presently, Glassnode concludes Bitcoin has stabilized enough for a bounce within its bearish structure, with participants most likely to sell being those who have been underwater since the rally peaked.