Traders in the Bitcoin market are increasingly placing bets on a rise to $80,000 as geopolitical tensions ease, institutional demand strengthens, and prices rebound above $70,000. This renewed interest follows a period of defensive trading strategies.
On Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange now owned by Coinbase, contracts with an open interest totaling approximately $1.5 billion are set to pay out if Bitcoin surpasses $80,000. Similarly, on-chain options platform Derive has seen increased activity at the $85,000 strike level, with about $60 million in open interest, and calls at $100,000 nearing $45 million.
This shift marks a change from recent trends where traders primarily sought protection against further declines. Despite Bitcoin’s recovery from lows near $67,000 to over $70,000—aided by a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran easing oil prices and stabilizing risk sentiment—the market remains cautious. Long-term downside protection is still in demand, indicating continued defensive positioning.
Improved sentiment is evident as traders adjust their positions post-ceasefire. Previously dominant strategies involved buying puts at $61,000 and $62,000 for April 24, reflecting concerns over further declines. However, these were rolled up to the $65,000 and $66,000 strikes on a premium-neutral basis, reducing downside exposure by more than half. Concurrently, traders positioned for near-term gains with an April 10 call condor spanning $74,000 to $80,000.
This repositioning is mirrored in options markets, where short-term skew has transitioned from favoring puts to a flatter profile as call demand returns. Despite volatility firming up due to geopolitical tensions, implied volatility remained stable, allowing long-gamma holders to profit as prices rallied.
Market observers note that Bitcoin’s recovery aligns with declining oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire, easing one of the immediate inflation risks and stabilizing risk assets. This shift is significant as Bitcoin had been trading more like a macro-sensitive asset, with traders monitoring oil, bond yields, and Fed expectations alongside crypto-specific indicators.
Despite this, the macro environment remains mixed. Recent US consumer price index data showed 3.3% inflation, the highest since May 2024, keeping pressure on Fed rate cut expectations. Markets now anticipate a roughly 30% chance of at least a quarter-point rate cut in December.
The options market reflects potential for Bitcoin to test higher levels if macro pressures ease, with interest concentrated around $80,000, $85,000, and $100,000. Glassnode’s key reference levels suggest active investors’ mean is at $85,000, short-term holder cost basis at $81,300, and the true market mean near $78,000. These levels form a band of resistance with spot prices around $71,800.
However, broader cycle debates persist. Alphractal’s Joao Wedson points to on-chain signals indicating potential for further declines before sustained momentum resumes. This crossover of investor price below long-term holder realized price suggests market control may shift from speculative participants to those with longer time horizons.
CryptoQuant data shows easing stress conditions in Bitcoin, but demand hasn’t fully reasserted itself, leaving the market between forced selling and fresh directional demand. Derivatives positioning remains balanced, with hedging activity at higher levels indicating caution amid rallies.
For a sustained push toward $80,000, spot flows will need to support options positioning, particularly through ETFs and wealth-management channels. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen their largest weekly inflow in five weeks, totaling $545.9 million. Morgan Stanley’s new Bitcoin ETF added momentum with over $46 billion in initial inflows.
However, futures positioning on Binance indicates growing bearish bets, suggesting caution despite improved institutional flows. Prediction markets reflect this divide, with a 26% chance assigned to Bitcoin exceeding $80,000 this month.
Overall, while traders have begun pricing in higher ceilings, the market awaits further proof of sustained momentum, indicating that any push higher is likely to be gradual.