The bitcoin market has bifurcated into two distinct groups following six weeks of conflict: institutional investors who persistently accumulate and other participants who are exiting the market. This dichotomy creates a facade of stability, with bitcoin prices oscillating between $65,000 and $73,000 during five weeks filled with conflict-related headlines, liquidation events totaling $600 million, and sentiment readings as negative as those seen in the 2022 bear market. However, beneath this veneer lies a narrowing field that hints at future trends.
Currently, three entities are responsible for most of the sustained buying pressure in bitcoin: Strategy, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies. Each buys out of necessity due to their business models rather than discretionary decisions based on price speculation. Strategy disclosed its latest acquisition on April 5, purchasing 4,871 BTC at an average cost of $67,718 per coin, bringing their total holdings to 766,970 BTC acquired for approximately $58.02 billion with a blended cost basis of $75,644. Despite being underwater by about 8%, Strategy’s continued purchases lower its breakeven point.
Strategy’s STRC preferred equity product has attracted significant inflows recently, facilitating ongoing accumulation as long as investor interest remains strong. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed around 50,000 BTC in March—a peak not seen since October 2025. However, weekly data from CoinShares reveals a less optimistic picture with only $22 million of the $107 million total global bitcoin ETP inflows coming from U.S. ETFs last week.
The institutional channel is active but shows signs of deceleration and concentration geographically. Meanwhile, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, primarily focused on ether, bought 71,252 ETH last week, its most significant purchase since December 2025, now holding roughly $10 billion worth of tokens.
Conversely, whales with holdings between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have transitioned from being major buyers to the largest sellers. Their one-year change in holdings has shifted from a net gain of about 200,000 BTC at the peak of 2024’s bull market to a loss of 188,000 BTC—a dramatic 400,000 BTC reversal described by CryptoQuant as unprecedented among large holders.
Mid-tier holders, with portfolios between 100 and 1,000 BTC, continue to accumulate but at a significantly reduced pace. Bitcoin miners listed publicly are liquidating their treasuries; Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, and Genius Group have sold over 19,000 BTC in one week. Rising difficulty levels and energy costs are pushing some miners, like Core Scientific and Hut 8, towards AI hosting for more stable revenue.
Bhutan, notable for its hydropower-backed bitcoin mining operation, has reduced its holdings by 70% since October 2024, moving additional BTC to exchange-linked wallets this week. Strategy now acquires more bitcoin in a typical week than Bhutan currently holds.
The gap between mandated buyers and discretionary market sentiment is historically significant. The Fear and Greed Index remained entrenched in extreme fear for over a month before rising after the ceasefire announcement. Meanwhile, social media sentiment has been predominantly bearish since the war’s onset.
Despite these challenges, ETFs continued purchasing 50,000 BTC monthly, and Strategy acquired roughly 44,000 BTC, maintaining bitcoin prices above $65,000 due to absorption by mandatory buyers. The ceasefire sparked a significant rally on Tuesday, with bitcoin exceeding $72,000 and short positions liquidating. Open interest in perpetual contracts expanded, indicating new long positions rather than mere short covering.
The Coinbase Premium’s return to positive territory for both bitcoin and ether suggests potential re-engagement from U.S. buyers since the conflict began. However, structural dynamics remain unchanged, and whether this leads to a trend reversal hinges on the ceasefire’s permanence and the capacity of institutional flows to breach the $73,000 barrier.
In summary, data indicates a narrowing buyer base for bitcoin, with sustained buying pressure now limited to a few entities like Strategy, ETFs, and Morgan Stanley. The rest of the market is either selling off, decelerating purchases, or exiting altogether.