Today’s unexpected geopolitical development has driven Bitcoin to new heights. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz (or ‘Strait of Iran,’ as President Donald Trump refers to it) will remain open amid an ongoing ceasefire, causing oil prices to plummet and risk assets like Bitcoin to surge.
Bitcoin reached an intraday peak above $78,000 following this announcement before experiencing a slight pullback. Meanwhile, stocks tied to digital asset treasuries such as Strategy rose by over 10%, with BTC’s ascent pulling its holdings back from negative territory.
The macroeconomic landscape has been challenging throughout most of 2026 due to Middle Eastern tensions, inflation concerns, a robust dollar, and tight liquidity. These factors have kept Bitcoin in a relentless decline since it peaked at $126,000 in October 2025.
However, changes this week offer hope for bulls. The daily chart shows significance today, as Bitcoin opened at $75,172 and climbed to an intraday high of $78,384, closing the session at $77,205—a gain of 2.7%. This movement is crucial in confirming that the descending resistance trendline, which has consistently halted rallies since October 2025, has now been invalidated.
For seven months, this line acted as a gravitational force preventing Bitcoin from rising. Today marks its first trading week over this line since the bearish pattern began.
Since reaching $126,000, Bitcoin has followed a descending channel—characterized by lower highs and lows, coupled with numerous unsuccessful breakout attempts that were increasingly capped. The yellow trendlines indicate months of compression where each rally became less forceful while support was tested more deeply.
Had this trend persisted, the likely next support zone would have been between $50,000 and $55,000. This scenario has now been postponed or potentially averted.
Bulls find optimism in current indicators. While the Exponential Moving Averages remain bearish with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA—indicative of a death cross—the gap between them is narrowing for the first time since January. The Average Directional Index (ADX), at 18.1, suggests that the ongoing bearish trend is losing strength. An ADX reading below 25 generally indicates market indecision with little momentum driving prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.7, signaling Bitcoin as overbought but still within a manageable range. Traditionally, an RSI above 70 signals overbought conditions. The vertical lines on the chart indicate that the squeeze momentum indicator has been activated, showing positive momentum.
In Myriad, a prediction market by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $84K before potentially dropping to $55K. Currently, there is a 69% probability of this scenario according to Myriad, marking the widest gap favoring a price increase since its February debut.
However, expectations remain cautious concerning timelines. A separate market on Myriad assigns only a 6% chance of Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high before July.
In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin stays above the now-supportive trendline at around $74,000–$75,000, with ADX rising above 20–25. Conversely, if bears regain control and RSI rolls over from near-overbought levels, Bitcoin might retest this support zone. A break below could revert the broken resistance to its original state, undermining the breakout.
The views expressed by the author are solely informational and do not constitute financial or investment advice.