Bitcoin has shown resilience against rising Middle Eastern tensions compared to oil and equities. On Monday morning, Bitcoin was valued at $74,335, marking a 1.6% decrease over the past 24 hours yet registering a weekly gain of 4.8%, following the U.S. Navy’s capture of an Iranian vessel over the weekend and Tehran’s reinstatement of controls on the Strait of Hormuz.
Ether dropped by 2.6% to $2,272, Solana decreased by 1.5% to $84, while BNB remained stable at $618. The broader top-10 cryptocurrencies showed declines across the board but did not exceed a 3% drop.
Brent crude surged by 5.7% to $95.50 per barrel, and European natural gas futures saw an increase of up to 11%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.6% after reaching a record high on Friday, with European equity futures projecting a 1.2% decline at the opening bell. Gold experienced a slight decrease of 0.8% to $4,790, and the dollar gained as traditional war-hedge demand resurfaced.
The weekend tensions reversed a three-week reduction in the war risk premium. Following Iran’s declaration that the Strait was “completely open” on Friday, which contributed to the S&P 500’s record close and a rally across emerging markets, Trump threatened significant military action against Iran if negotiations faltered by Sunday morning. Concurrently, Tehran indicated it might skip further talks amid ongoing U.S. naval blockades.
This marks the fourth major geopolitical risk related to Iran that cryptocurrencies have faced since the conflict began, with each successive event resulting in less pronounced sell-offs for crypto compared to previous escalations. This trend indicates that traditional markets are still adjusting to such risks, while crypto appears to have largely incorporated the geopolitical tail risk either due to early sell-off by holders or a more stable floor provided by spot ETF bids.
Traders will be observing whether Bitcoin is pulled lower through the risk-parity channel by a 10-year Treasury yield near 4.27% and a stronger dollar, or if the asset’s correlation with equities seen in Q1 loosens amid explicit geopolitical tensions rather than macro-liquidity factors. If Bitcoin maintains $74,000 as European markets open and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalate, it will reinforce its reputation as a buffer against geopolitical shocks. Conversely, should prices drop below $73,000 on further Iran-related developments, the notion of diminishing sell-offs would be challenged.