The world’s crucial oil passage, the Strait of Hormuz, has remained largely closed since late February, with traders foreseeing a prolonged disruption. On Polymarket, there is only a 28% chance that normal shipping operations will resume by April 30, despite Iran and the U.S. announcing a ceasefire and Tehran claiming to have reopened the strait.
The main issue is vessels turning back as evidenced by video from Kpler showing tankers reversing course near the strait. BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, has advised avoidance due to an uncleared mine threat, indicating that it remains unsafe for transit, as per their chief security officer speaking with CNBC recently.
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis started on February 28 when Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrike campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear installations, was launched. Iran’s IRGC responded by closing the strait to vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and their allies, causing tanker traffic to plummet over 90%. Brent crude prices surged above $100 for the first time in four years, peaking near $126—marking one of the fastest oil price spikes tied to conflict in modern history.
A ceasefire declared on April 8 briefly buoyed optimism, leading to a 12% drop in Brent within a single trading session. However, physical conditions remained unchanged. Iran imposed crypto tolls roughly equating to $1 per barrel on tankers, with reports of the IRGC collecting up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin, Chinese yuan, and USDT. On April 18, Tehran re-imposed restrictions due to a U.S. port blockade, reducing traffic to below 5% of pre-war levels.
Prediction markets indicate that disruptions are likely to continue. Myriad’s crude oil direction market is pricing a 63.2% chance that Brent reaches $120 versus a 36.8% probability of it dropping to $55. This reflects persistent pessimism, as the likelihood of a spike has never dipped below 50%, briefly reaching optimism at 50.9% on April 17 before reverting.
A separate Myriad market assesses whether ship transits through Hormuz will exceed 15 vessels by May, leaning 61.8% towards ‘Yes.’ However, probabilities fluctuated from nearly 90% to below 40% in early April before stabilizing. Another prediction suggests a 70.5% chance that President Trump will declare an end to military actions against Iran before June. Despite his recent statement of not rushing the war’s conclusion, markets still see some flexibility given the timeframe.
Collectively, these predictions sketch a picture of gradual normalization with potential ongoing turbulence. Polymarket indicates a 61% probability for normal Hormuz traffic by May 31, increasing to about 70% if extended to June 30.
BIMCO’s warning remains active. IMF Portwatch requires a sustained average of at least 60 vessel arrivals over seven days for the market to resolve positively—current data falling significantly short with April 30 looming in just 10 days.
The economic implications are significant, with Dallas Fed research estimating that a full-quarter closure could reduce annualized global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points in Q2 2026 alone. The strait transports about 20% of the world’s oil and an equivalent share of LNG without viable alternative routes.
Crypto traders have been particularly inventive, with oil-linked perpetual futures on Hyperliquid processing approximately $991 million during peak tension—a stark contrast to Coinbase’s $75,000 in the same period. The continuous nature of crypto markets offers a real-time gauge for an ongoing crisis that disregards traditional trading hours.
The use of prediction markets has drawn attention. Senator Chris Murphy flagged concerns after Bubblemaps identified six suspected insider accounts collectively earning $1.2 million betting on U.S. strikes against Iran, with wallet funding and position openings occurring just before Tehran explosions.