Bitcoin has maintained a consistent upward trajectory in April with minimal pullbacks, enabling altcoins to extend their gains significantly.
Leading the pack of altcoin surges is the meme coin Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), which has increased by 12.6% within the day. Additionally, Cosmos (ATOM), Aptos, and Bitcoin Cash have seen over a 5% rise in the past 24 hours. This surge occurs as Bitcoin hovers near $78,000, marking an approximately 2% increase since yesterday, according to CoinGecko data. Analysts predict that if this bullish trend continues, Bitcoin could potentially reach $80,000 for the first time in over two and a half months.
“We are witnessing both early rotation and mechanically driven gains,” Wenny Cai, founder of Anchored Finance, told Decrypt. “There is genuine capital movement along the risk curve as Bitcoin consolidates, especially into higher-beta majors and select narratives. However, the speed of this surge indicates that short covering and leverage are intensifying it.”
Consequently, nearly $418 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated, with over $286 million stemming from bearish or short-selling investors, indicating they were unprepared for such a shift, as per CoinGlass data.
Investor sentiment has turned bullish, with users on the prediction market Myriad—owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan—assigning a 75% probability that Bitcoin’s next rally could propel it to $84,000. This optimism represents an increase from about 45% at the start of April.
Despite this positive outlook, uncertainties linger. A strategist from Schwab points out $83,000 as a critical resistance level, representing the average cost basis for Bitcoin ETP investors, according to a prior Decrypt report. Beyond that is $87,000, which marks the 200-day simple moving average; breaking through it typically signals a long-term bullish trend.
“The significance of the $83,000 benchmark lies in its position as the breakeven point for many spot ETP buyers,” Orkun Kılıç, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, told Decrypt. “Recapturing this level would be both financially and psychologically significant for a substantial amount of recent institutional capital.”
However, until these pivotal challenges are surmounted, the outlook remains uncertain. Cai compared Bitcoin’s current situation to the unresolved Middle East conflict, suggesting similar uncertainties in its path beyond $83,000.
Cai warned that altcoins could become “fragile” if Bitcoin fails to surpass the ETP cost basis, emphasizing that much of the rally depends on Bitcoin’s stability rather than its strength. A rejection at this point may tighten liquidity conditions across the market, disproportionately affecting higher-beta altcoins.
Investors should be wary of assets whose growth has outpaced their fundamentals, as these could quickly lead to a reversal in leveraged positions. While optimism for Bitcoin remains robust, skepticism about an “altseason” persists, with Myriad users estimating only a 22% chance of its occurrence before July.