Bitcoin has exhibited a robust bullish market structure over the last three weeks, signaling an extended rally, according to recent analyses.
The Risk Index, Glassnode’s proprietary metric that gauges systemic risk on a scale from 0 to 100, is currently at zero—indicating minimal risk. This “cleared risk landscape,” as reported in a Thursday Telegram post by the firm, also serves as an indicator of market health. A 25 threshold differentiates between low- and high-risk regimes.
The Moderate Strategy has shifted from “Moderate” to “High Confidence,” capturing upside momentum and exiting when conviction wanes. Analysts, speaking to Decrypt, note that these models’ alignment suggests a bullish regime, supported by continuous inflows into Bitcoin ETPs and strong spot buyer demand.
It’s the first time since October 10th that the Moderate Strategy has moved to high confidence, with the Risk Index at zero indicating a cleared risk landscape. Glassnode tweeted on April 20, 2026: “After seven years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market conditions.”
“This is an excellent time for strategic accumulation rather than chasing deeper dips,” said Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, speaking to Decrypt. She added that the firm holds “a strong conviction for a positive close to 2026,” driven by improving market structure and institutional confidence pushing Bitcoin toward new highs.
“With the US-Iran conflict easing, bullish bets will continue driving the market upward in the near term,” Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, told Decrypt. Consequently, Bitcoin reached $79,388 on Wednesday—its highest level in three months.
Investor sentiment has improved significantly, with the Fear and Greed Index moving from “extreme fear” at April’s start to “fear.” Users on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, now see a 74% chance of Bitcoin pushing toward $84,000 next—up from 62% earlier in the week.
A similar bullish outlook is evident for Ethereum, with users assigning a 54% probability of it rising to $3,000 next.
“Breaking and holding above $80K would be a significant technical and psychological catalyst, paving the way for recovery toward $90K and potentially $100K,” Zhang added.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have decreased slightly over the past day, down 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin is trading around $77,800, while Ethereum is at approximately $2,330.
Despite Glassnode’s risk indicators and underlying bullish developments, analysts urge caution. “Risks include potential resumption of Middle Eastern hostilities, oil flow restrictions, and increased inflation leading to rate hikes,” Mei noted.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a concern. Experts have previously highlighted this issue for Decrypt. Additionally, the recent uptrend has pushed 54% of recent buyers into profitable territory, according to Glassnode’s latest report—reaching a threshold historically marking bear market rally exhaustion.
Short-term holders’ realized profit has surged to $4.4 million, three times the $1.5 million threshold signaling caution without new demand catalysts. The critical missing element is a fundamental catalyst, such as the CLARITY Act, Fed rate cuts, or a lasting Middle East truce, which could further clear the path above $80,000.