Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated to around $76,500 from its recent peak above $79,000 earlier this week, pausing the surge from late-March lows below $65,000. Those anticipating a rapid resurgence should consider that current economic indicators do not favor a significant upward movement.
Key among these is the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, which revealed the consumer sentiment index plummeting to an all-time low of 49.8 this month, largely due to inflationary pressures exacerbated by the Iran conflict.
Inflation expectations have also risen sharply, with the one-year forecast jumping to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the prior month. Long-term projections (five to ten years) have escalated to 3.5%, marking the highest level since October 2025.
As reported in CoinDesk’s ‘Daybook’ newsletter, inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, prompting central banks like the Federal Reserve to closely monitor them and strive to stabilize them. The notable increase could constrain the Fed’s ability to suggest interest-rate reductions or liquidity easing shortly, as further monetary easing might exacerbate inflationary pressures. This hawkish stance may limit potential gains in BTC and other risk assets.
“For the Federal Reserve, the shift in long-term expectations is particularly concerning. It’s a critical variable for assessing whether inflation psychology is becoming unanchored, and such a significant one-month change raises the threshold for any near-term easing pivot, even as the real economy shows marginal weakening,” analysts at Bitfinex noted.
The Fed is anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday.
Meanwhile, traders are also factoring in a possible Bank of Japan rate increase in June.
“Rate hikes this month appear unlikely according to current market sentiment. Financial projections indicate more than two rate increases could occur in the eurozone and the U.K. before year-end. A June hike is almost fully anticipated. The lack of clear data hampers decision-making, which remains a significant obstacle,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, stated via email.
On the crypto-specific front, consistent ETF inflows are essential for supporting spot BTC during market dips.
Concurrently, industry efforts to manage repercussions from the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens withstand broader market declines. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index rose by 0.5% over 24 hours, diverging from the CoinDesk 20’s 1.5% drop. Stay informed!
For more insights on altcoin and derivatives activity today, refer to Crypto Markets Today. For a detailed schedule of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s ‘Crypto Week Ahead.’
The chart illustrates Bitcoin’s hourly price fluctuations in candlestick format since late March.
BTC has exited an ascending trendline (white dashed line) that guided its upward trajectory since early this month. Additionally, prices are below their 50- and 200-hour moving averages.
This pattern suggests trend exhaustion and potential for a further decline. The bullish scenario would revive if BTC prices recover both moving averages.