Michael Terpin, a pioneering bitcoin investor and author of ‘Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich,’ asserts that Bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom. He also doubts an all-time high will be set this year. According to Terpin, a bull market for bitcoin would require prices to surpass $100,000—a threshold he believes is unlikely as no such support level has emerged. He forecasts the bottom at around $57,000 in October.
Despite Bitcoin’s double-digit gains in April, Terpin maintains that it remains in a downward trend. Known as ‘the crypto Godfather,’ Terpin was instrumental in early blockchain industry developments around 2013, founding initiatives like Transform Group and CoinAgenda. Contrary to analysts who view the February $60,000 low as the start of a bull run—citing ETF inflows and resilience amid geopolitical tensions—Terpin remains bearish.
In his discussion with CoinDesk, Terpin highlighted Bitcoin’s rejection at the psychological $80,000 mark during Asian trading hours on Monday, attributing it to high oil prices. He suggests this is typical in a bitcoin cycle’s later stages as lower highs face rejection until capitulation occurs—a phase where significant selling pressure signals a bottom.
Jason Fernandes of AdLunam concurs with Terpin that the bottom hasn’t been reached but disputes the timeline, arguing full market capitulation has not yet occurred. Historically, such bottoms align with both speculative leverage exhaustion and macroeconomic stability, neither present now, according to Fernandes.
Terpin points to historical averages from past cycles’ lows, indicating a $57,000 bottom in October—mirroring last year’s timeline when Bitcoin plummeted below $100,000 before the significant crash on October 10, which erased $19 billion in leveraged positions. Fernandes warns that ongoing macroeconomic conditions might continue affecting risk assets like bitcoin.
Terpin also believes an all-time high for Bitcoin is unlikely this year. However, Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics disagrees, suggesting room remains for growth due to increasing institutional adoption and interest. AdLunam’s Fernandes notes market sentiment hasn’t reached typical cycle lows, implying potential further declines before a stable base forms.
Regarding the $100,000 threshold, Fernandes sees it as more psychological than technical, emphasizing that true bull markets are defined by consistent higher highs and strong capital inflows, not merely reaching specific price points. Yet, he acknowledges hitting this mark could psychologically trigger the market behavior needed for a bull run.