On Tuesday, Bitcoin experienced a pullback as the United Arab Emirates declared its exit from OPEC effective May 1. This announcement propelled oil prices higher, adding to the market turbulence already heightened by tensions in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
The UAE’s withdrawal concluded its 59-year association with the oil cartel and resulted in Brent crude climbing approximately 6%, surpassing $103 per barrel. Bitcoin fell from a peak of $79,260 on April 27 to an intraday low of $75,849, according to CoinGecko data, before stabilizing around $77,000. Concurrently, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 1% from its local high of 7,213, impacted by oil prices breaching $103.
On the prediction platform Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, there is a 75% probability that crude oil will next surge to $120 per barrel, up from 62% on Monday. Prior to Tuesday’s macroeconomic shock, Bitcoin’s order book indicated a significant resistance: a cluster of sell orders between $80,400 and $82,000, each roughly valued at $3.3 million, standing firm for over 24 hours as reported by CoinGlass.
This price range is strategically critical. It spans the 200-day exponential moving average, an essential metric for long-term price trends, and aligns with a CME gap that QCP Capital, a Singapore-based trading firm, identified as crucial for Bitcoin’s recovery.
The overlap of substantial overhead supply and key technical levels leaves Bitcoin caught between opposing forces. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, explained to Decrypt, “If Bitcoin can’t surpass the gap, it underscores the idea that this movement remains corrective rather than impulsive. Rejection at this level would signal increasing supply, possibly prompting profit-taking and a shift back toward lower support zones.”
Below its current price, bids are accumulating around $76,800 and $75,000, CoinGlass reports. The enduring nature of the sell wall reflects strategic market structuring rather than an abrupt increase in bearish sentiment, according to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group. He noted that the $80,000 to $82,000 range is a dense liquidity area where strong selling pressure naturally arises because sellers release supply incrementally at these levels due to existing demand below—a cycle reinforcing itself as long as buyers don’t breakthrough decisively.
“Even if prices briefly breach this level without corresponding signals from spot buying, ETF inflows, and derivatives markets, the upward momentum remains substantial,” Sun added.
Not all experts agree with this bearish outlook. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, told Decrypt that increased UAE oil production might lead to lower input costs and potentially softer inflation over time. This could allow central banks more flexibility, depending on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens for commercial shipping. However, “for now, global oil prices and their economic impact will overshadow positive developments like the CLARITY Act for weeks,” Mei noted.
Beyond oil markets, investor attention is also on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting concluding today, with anticipations set on Chair Powell’s guidance for 2026. His tone is expected to influence investor behavior and risk asset trends in the upcoming months.
“I still view fluctuation within the $74,000 to $82,000 range as Bitcoin’s base case,” Sun remarked, citing U.S.-Iran de-escalation and a clear Fed pivot toward easing as necessary for a sustained price increase. Mei pointed to similar catalysts—normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or rate cuts—the latter seen as unlikely while oil prices remain high.
“This phase appears more like a periodic recovery under macro pressure rather than the onset of a new upward trend,” Sun concluded, noting the momentum for rebounds but questioning overall sustainability. “It possesses bounce potential, yet its long-term viability is weak.”