According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX exchange and CIO of Maelstrom fund, the drive behind Hyperliquid’s entry into prediction markets is centered on capturing upside potential rather than merely offering lower trading fees. CoinDesk reported that Hyperliquid plans to implement a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading via HIP-4. This proposal, known as Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, aims to introduce event trading on the platform.
Hayes emphasized that this structure represents just an initial layer. In correspondence with CoinDesk, he pointed out that HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, is a key differentiator, enabling users to gain from platform activity in ways Polymarket and Kalshi do not currently offer.
“HIP-4 is poised to become a leading prediction market due to Hyperliquid’s extensive user base, significantly lower trading fees, and strong technological infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Those holding the $HYPE token can directly profit from their engagement with HIP-4.”
Polymarket is anticipated to release its own token, commonly known as $POLY. On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts linked to a potential $POLY token are priced around $14, suggesting a fully-diluted valuation of approximately $14 billion. In contrast, HYPE’s FDV stands at about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
Pre-listing market valuations often involve high speculation and may not accurately reflect actual demand due to limited trading activity.
Geographical factors also play a significant role. Polymarket registered with the CFTC in July last year, focusing on compliance as it rebuilds its U.S. operations. However, it faces regulatory challenges in Asia, being geoblocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, partially restricted in Japan, and under scrutiny by gambling regulators in Hong Kong.
In contrast, Hyperliquid operates without similar constraints and has a user base predominantly based in Asia, where crypto-native trading is prevalent.
Kalshi provides the most direct comparison. As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model prioritizes compliance over token incentives, precluding the value-accrual layer Hayes highlights. Users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi but cannot access platform upside like equity in traditional markets, such as through an IPO.
Overall, the three platforms exhibit structural differences: Hyperliquid integrates usage with its token, Polymarket seems to be heading in that direction, while Kalshi’s model likely precludes it.