Bitcoin is currently priced at $76,099.20 and has seen a marginal increase of less than 0.5% since midnight UTC. However, any significant move towards the $80,000 mark may face strong resistance.
Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, explained that short-term holders have their cost basis near $80,000. Consequently, surpassing this level could trigger profit-taking and selling, thereby limiting further gains.
Additionally, U.S. March PCE inflation data is expected to add pressure as oil prices continue to stress risk assets. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed to around $110, with reduced activity in the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy markets vulnerable.
The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged also impacts the market. Notably, four dissenting voices were recorded—the highest since 1992—with one governor advocating for a rate cut and three regional presidents opposing the suggestion that the Fed would resume easing.
Deans noted that altcoins remain closely linked to bitcoin, with their 180-day correlation and beta percentiles at 97% and 99%, respectively. This indicates that tokens may behave like leveraged bitcoin trades in current conditions.
“Underlying these developments are conditions usually linked with rising volatility,” Deans remarked. “Liquidity remains limited, as profit-taking and losses largely balance out, indicating a lack of directional conviction.”
In such scenarios, he added, significant price movements might be necessary to unlock new liquidity.