Bitcoin was already constrained below a significant supply zone before the latest Federal Reserve decision, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks offering little encouragement for price increases. The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% and attributed rising inflation to global energy costs, exacerbated by Middle Eastern tensions.
Powell noted in his opening statement that total PCE was around 3.5% through March, with core PCE at 3.2%, predicting a short-term rise in inflation due to higher oil prices. The Fed’s decision revealed deep divisions, marking the most fragmented vote since 1992: eight members supported the decision, one favored a rate cut, and three opposed any easing bias.
This divide underscored an easing bias that remained in official statements despite some officials arguing it was overly accommodating. Consequently, Bitcoin faces a macroeconomic scenario where a dovish shift is harder to anticipate, even as projections indicate a median Fed funds rate of 3.4% by 2026, suggesting one potential cut this year.
Market expectations now show minimal likelihood of such a reduction by year-end, with some traders anticipating a possible rate hike within the next twelve months. Brent crude was priced at $103 per barrel in March, with predictions peaking near $115 in Q2 before dropping below $90 by Q4 2026.
The Fed’s inflation challenge stems from an uncontrollable external energy shock, as noted by Powell. Both headline and core inflation are rising through distinct channels: energy impacts PCE, while tariffs affect core goods prices. This dual-pressure setup limits the Fed’s ability to overlook the oil price spike until it confirms that these costs aren’t influencing inflation expectations.
Bitcoin is currently below a substantial supply zone. Near-term macroeconomic conditions offer limited support for absorbing this supply as higher near-term inflation expectations were highlighted by Powell. Glassnode identifies Bitcoin resistance at the True Market Mean, around $78,000, and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,000, creating a supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000 that has already been tested unsuccessfully.
Bitcoin’s spot price hovered close to $75,900 in late April 2026, below this resistance range and near a downside volatility trigger at $76,000. Support levels are situated between $65,000 and $70,000, with the -1 standard deviation band around $68,000 serving as an initial significant structural floor.
If oil prices decrease following EIA forecasts, inflation pressures could ease, making the Fed’s potential rate cut more plausible. Should Bitcoin surpass $80,000 under these conditions, a $82,000 short-gamma zone might compel dealers to buy into strength, propelling further price increases. Conversely, if oil prices remain elevated through Q2 and sustain headline inflation, Bitcoin may struggle at key resistance levels, leading to retreats toward the $65,000-$70,000 support range.
The $68,000 level could become a critical threshold; without stabilizing ETF flows or sufficient spot demand, market structures below this point might weaken. In scenarios where oil prices moderate and inflation pressures ease, Bitcoin could see upward momentum. However, persistent high energy costs keeping inflation elevated would continue to challenge Bitcoin’s price stability.
Ultimately, the path of oil prices emerges as a pivotal factor, with Powell noting that external shocks are outside the Fed’s control, emphasizing the need for cooperative conditions from both oil markets and monetary policy to support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Despite current net-short positions indicating anticipated market challenges, signs like reduced spot selling and stabilizing ETF assets suggest potential shifts in distribution momentum.
The key scenarios hinge on whether real demand materializes within the $78,000-$80,000 range before macroeconomic uncertainties potentially trigger further declines.