Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt anticipates bitcoin reaching a staggering $250,000 by 2029, contingent on the market completing a prolonged bottoming process that could extend into September 2026. His projection aligns with the four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has consistently influenced market expectations.
Historically, major bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months following each quadrennial halving event, succeeded by extended bear markets. Subsequent uptrends typically commence 12 to 18 months before the next halving. This pattern was evident in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin peaking in October 2025, about 18 months post-April 2024 halving when miner rewards dropped from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125.
Should this pattern persist, the bear market initiated thereafter should bottom near October 2026, paving the way for a new uptrend that could peak at $250,000 by late 2029, roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving.
“I am not predicting a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It isn’t necessary to breach the recent low. We might see a rally followed by sideways or downward movement. In the worst scenario, prices could drop into the lower green banana peel, possibly reaching the 50s or high 40s before surging towards $250k and peaking in late 2029,” Brandt communicated via email to CoinDesk.
Brandt’s career spans nearly five decades, beginning in the 1970s within futures markets, initially trading traditional assets like agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, well before electronic trading or digital assets emerged. His outlook contrasts with many crypto analysts who believe that the downtrend starting from the October peak near $126,000 concluded around early February at $60,000, interpreting the subsequent rally as a new uptrend.
Since early February, bitcoin has climbed over 25% to reach approximately $80,300, according to CoinDesk data. Brandt’s prediction of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily suggest a deeper downturn pushing prices below the February low; instead, he envisions potential sideways or downward movement before establishing a bottom.
Brandt emphasizes that his forecast hinges on the market adhering to its historical patterns. He is open to revising his projections if price actions deviate from expected trends. “As long as the market follows the script, I will remain committed to my projections. Should price discovery diverge, I’ll be compelled to reassess my views without being dogmatic,” he added.