Traders eyeing bitcoin’s recent price surge could benefit from a straightforward yet effective guide based on three months of Velo’s price data. This data reveals that the recovery from early February lows under $63,000 to over $80,000 was not uniformly spread across the day, with specific sessions, hours, and days consistently outperforming others.
Velo segments the trading day into three eight-hour periods: APAC (00:00-08:00 UTC) covering Tokyo, Singapore, Seoul, and Sydney; Europe (08:00-16:00 UTC) encompassing London and Frankfurt; and U.S. (16:00-00:00 UTC), including New York.
The significant price rise of approximately 31% since February 6 has been predominantly driven by APAC and U.S. trading hours, with APAC contributing a return of 13% and the U.S. at 11.5%, while Europe trails behind at just 6.5%. The notable shift in the U.S. session’s performance, moving from flat to negative returns during February and March to positive in early April, underscores its recent impact.
While this data doesn’t predict future trends, it does indicate when liquidity and momentum are highest in APAC and U.S., potentially aiding traders with market timing and risk management strategies.
Within these key sessions, the midnight UTC candle (00:00-01:00) emerges as the optimal trading hour over three months, yielding an average return of 0.10%. This period overlaps late U.S. hours and early APAC, marking a critical point for new market liquidity.
The second most effective hour is at 15:00 UTC during Europe’s session, while the least favorable is 06:00 UTC.
Analyzing days of the week reveals Monday as the standout day, with an average return of about 1.5% over three months, far outpacing Wednesday (0.65%) and Friday (0.3%). Thursday registers the lowest at around negative 0.55%. Overall, weekdays see a positive average of approximately 0.4%, whereas weekends drop to negative 0.25%.
In conclusion, for those bullish on timing market entries, Monday offers the clearest advantage according to this data.