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Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $81,000 after narrowly missing the significant resistance at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which sits around $83,300 as of Wednesday. The broader cryptocurrency market also experienced a downturn, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index dropping over 2% in the past day, marking it as the poorest performer among major sector indices.
The 200-day SMA is considered an important indicator of long-term market trends. A sustained push above this level would suggest that the bear market concluded during February’s dip below $63,000 and signal the start of a new bull cycle.
However, historical patterns from previous recoveries in bear markets indicate caution; BTC has previously tested and briefly surpassed the 200-day average before continuing its downtrend. For instance, in late March 2022, BTC rose above $48,000 to test the 200-day SMA but subsequently fell toward $20,000 by June’s end.
Currently, several macroeconomic factors remain supportive: declining oil prices and record highs in gold, along with consistent ETF inflows and improved on-chain dynamics. Analysts from Marex identified three potential catalysts for BTC’s further rise:
“First, whether spot buyers continue purchasing at strength rather than just during dips. Second, if exchange supply keeps tightening to reduce sell pressure. Third, maintaining a constructive but not overheated derivatives market. If these conditions align, BTC could swiftly reach the mid-$80,000s,” they noted.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, described Bitcoin’s recent pullback as more of a pause than an indication of trend fatigue.
“This pause coincided with RSI entering the overbought zone (>70) on daily charts. Notably, past instances when these levels were reached in August, October, and January led to significant sell-offs. It makes sense that market participants are currently taking stock and regrouping,” he explained via email.
In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased to 4.32%, reversing from a spike to 4.46% earlier in the month—a positive sign for risk assets.
The Bank of Japan is intervening in FX markets to bolster the Japanese yen against rising risks, while several Asian currencies are pressured by recent oil price increases due to tensions following the Iran war. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures hover near record highs. Stay informed.
For further analysis on today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see ‘Crypto Markets Today.’ For an event schedule for this week, check CoinDesk’s ‘Crypto Week Ahead.’
BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custody bank, is expanding its crypto services in Abu Dhabi (CoinDesk). BNY, managing $59 trillion in assets, collaborates with Finstreet and ADI Foundation to establish regulated digital asset infrastructure within the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
Oil prices drop below $100 due to U.S.-Iran tensions heightening risks around the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC). Brent crude futures for July fell 1.85% to $99.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June increased by 1.85% to $93.21 per barrel.
Iran is assessing a new U.S. proposal aimed at ending conflict as Trump pressures Tehran for an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz (AP).
France has moved its aircraft carrier into the Red Sea, potentially gearing up for a mission in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters).