The notion that the crypto market must undergo a ‘mass extinction’ to eliminate ‘junk coins’ has been circulating for some time. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, and Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, previously predicted the failure of over 90% of initial coin offerings (ICOs). In 2019, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse concurred that 99% of cryptocurrencies would disappear.
This sentiment persists. Arthur Hayes, during his keynote at Consensus Miami 2026, asserted that ‘99% of altcoins could eventually go to zero,’ attributing survival only to a shift in fiat liquidity.
Market analyst Ben Cowen of Into the Cryptoverse told CoinDesk that while this purge began in 2021, a more significant cleansing is essential for bitcoin’s sustainable bull cycle. As bitcoin surpassed $81,000 recently for the first time since late January, some speculate the crypto winter has ended. Yet analysts caution against viewing this as anything but a ‘relief rally,’ pointing to liquidity challenges below $60,000 and the 200-day hurdle.
Bitcoin is currently nearing its 200-day moving average of roughly $82,300. Historically, not settling above these lines results in sharp declines due to waning buyer confidence. If bitcoin fails to secure support at $88,880 soon, a pullback to between $58,000 and $62,000 seems likely, according to technical analysts at CryptoQuant.
“To confirm the bottom, price needs to surpass 88,880 sustainably—not just briefly touch or fail this level. This would return recent investors to profitability and alleviate initial sell pressure,” they posted on X recently.
Cowen argues that for a genuine bull run, thousands of speculative ‘junk coins’ must be purged from the market. This shift is evidenced by capital concentrating in bitcoin as weaker projects vanish. Despite over 25 million token deployments via GeckoTerminal, more than 11.6 million failed in 2025 alone, mainly due to an oversaturated memecoin sector.
“Bitcoin’s rising dominance is a clear indicator of this trend,” Cowen noted. Bitcoin’s market share fell from over 99% in 2013 to about 33% in 2018 but has since rebounded to 60% by late April, with Ark Invest projecting it could reach 70% by 2030.
Cowen pointed out that including stablecoins distorts bitcoin dominance figures. Excluding them, his firm estimates dominance is over 67%, indicating capital is consolidating into bitcoin or moving to the sidelines. “The current cycle has seen a persistent downtrend in participation since 2021,” he added, noting rising bitcoin dominance alongside a declining advance-decline index for top cryptocurrencies.
Matthew Pinnock, COO at Altura DeFi, highlighted that automated launchpads like Pump.fun have exacerbated the proliferation of weak tokens, resulting in an 86% failure rate among 2025’s new launches. Luke Nolan from CoinShares noted that a significant token-level purge has already occurred, with memecoin market capitalization plummeting from approximately $150 billion in December 2024 to under $50 billion. “Ninety-five percent of tokens being worthless is fair,” Nolan remarked.
Despite bitcoin reaching $81,000 recently, Cowen remains cautious, predicting a continued bear market throughout the year amid geopolitical tensions and delayed Fed rate cuts. He doubts bitcoin will hit an all-time high in 2026, seeing it more as a reset year with time-based capitulation. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2029 following a prolonged bottoming phase until September or October. Michael Terpin, known as the ‘Crypto Godfather,’ anticipates bitcoin falling to about $57,000 before entering a bull phase.
“This business cycle is challenging; for higher-risk assets like bitcoin and ether to thrive, we need a crisis justifying looser monetary policy,” Cowen stated. “Without such a crisis, crypto will likely continue bleeding into other asset classes.” Bitcoin has already declined from its cycle peak near $126,000 to a low around $60,000, marking over a 50% drawdown, consistent with previous late-cycle environments.