As the first quarter of 2026 concludes, crypto trading volumes have declined significantly, prompting Wall Street analysts to revise their earnings projections before companies release their quarterly results. Recent studies by Barclays and Oppenheimer indicate a consensus among analysts that earlier forecasts were overly optimistic due to weaker trading activity.
Barclays has notably downgraded Coinbase (COIN), citing a drop in global crypto trading volumes to levels not seen since late 2023. The bank warns that unless there is a revival in trading, Coinbase’s profitability will be under significant strain. Data shows that Coinbase experienced its lowest trading volume month in March since September 2024, with no improvement observed in April. Barclays estimates a 30% decline in volumes for the first quarter compared to the previous one.
With lower transaction volumes, revenue from fees on each trade facilitated by crypto exchanges like Coinbase is expected to decrease. In quieter markets, many traders, especially retail users who previously traded more frequently during rallies, reduce their activity. This behavior across numerous accounts results in a rapid drop in exchange volumes. Transaction fees are crucial for most crypto platforms’ revenue, and Barclays highlights this risk, projecting Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA at about 24% below market expectations, primarily due to weaker spot trading and retail participation.
Crypto prices have also retracted during the first quarter, with major tokens seeing a significant drop in value. Bitcoin fell by over 22%, while ether declined by 29%. Oppenheimer echoes similar concerns but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for Coinbase, attributing forecast reductions to softer crypto prices and decreased trading activity amid broader economic uncertainties. The firm notes that current Wall Street estimates have yet to fully account for the drop in trading volumes.
Analysts are now adjusting their models downward to reflect this quieter market environment. Oppenheimer has revised its Coinbase volume estimate down to $211 billion from a previous forecast of $244 billion, predicting total revenue at $1.48 billion, below both prior forecasts and consensus estimates.
This trend is not exclusive to Coinbase. Oppenheimer reports that Circle (CRCL) continues to expand its USDC stablecoin network, with stablecoin market cap and transfer volumes increasing by approximately 1% and 12%, respectively. Bullish (BLSH), owner of CoinDesk, recorded robust platform activity in February due to volatility but still fell short on spot volume expectations. Consequently, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH this week, while Compass Point downgraded CRCL to “neutral” and “sell,” respectively.
Despite pockets of strength, the primary business of crypto trading is experiencing a slowdown. Efforts by companies like Coinbase to diversify into derivatives, tokenized assets, and new markets face skepticism; Barclays suggests such strategies may take time to yield results and express doubt about success in new asset classes like equities.
Stablecoins, considered more stable revenue sources, also confront uncertainty amid regulatory discussions in Washington. While the future of stablecoin rewards is uncertain, Oppenheimer anticipates support from emerging use cases, noting that increased prediction market activity could bolster USDC growth. However, these areas remain secondary to trading.
As earnings season approaches, analysts are proactively adjusting estimates to avoid surprises from weak results later on. Coinbase will report its second-quarter earnings on May 7, while Bullish’s report is due on April 23. Circle has yet to announce a date for their earnings release.