In Asia’s morning trading session Friday, Bitcoin was valued at approximately $74,700, marking a slight decrease of 0.4% over the past day but still reflecting a weekly increase of 3.5%. This comes as a recent rally in global equities paused ahead of next week’s deadline for the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension. Ether saw a reduction of 1.4%, settling at $2,327, yet it remains the top performer on a weekly basis with a 6% rise. XRP maintained its value at $1.43, boasting a 6.4% gain over the week, while solana rose by 2.7% to $87.67. BNB gained 0.7%, reaching $629.89, and dogecoin climbed 5.6% weekly to $0.0976.
The MSCI All Country World Index achieved a record high on Thursday before experiencing a minor dip of 0.1% in Asia. Similarly, the S&P 500 reached an unprecedented peak. Brent crude prices dropped by 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump suggested that prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were ‘looking very good.’
Trump’s comments included unverified claims that Tehran agreed to renounce nuclear ambitions, surrender nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of an agreement, none of which have been confirmed by Iran.
Separately, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming it via video message. Despite market optimism based on these developments, experts note that current equity gains might be overestimating the proximity of peace deals, as reflected in crude prices near $98 and continued closures at the Strait of Hormuz.
However, underlying bitcoin’s static price movement are factors garnering trader attention. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative recently, reaching levels last observed in 2023. This involves periodic payments between traders to align futures contract prices with spot prices. Negative funding indicates that short sellers are paying longs, suggesting the market is heavily positioned against price increases.
“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” stated Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, in a note to CoinDesk. “If Bitcoin continues its upward trend despite this, numerous positions could be liquidated swiftly, accelerating the rally.” Reis-Faria anticipates that bitcoin might hit $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if short positions are squeezed out.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers a contrarian perspective, noting that Bitcoin’s ‘True Market Mean’—which estimates active investors’ average cost basis by excluding inactive coins—indicates current underwater status for the average holder. Historically, significant periods below this metric have correlated with Bitcoin’s worst downturns, such as the 2018-19 bear market (-57% max drawdown, 282 days) and the 2022-23 decline post-Luna and FTX collapses (-56%, 339 days).
These analyses are not mutually exclusive. A short squeeze driven by negative funding and a structural downturn among underwater holders can coexist, potentially triggering a significant rally that may later be sold off. The prevailing scenario could hinge on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended beyond next week.