Despite an uncertain geopolitical climate and mixed signals regarding investor demand, Bitcoin concluded April with a robust double-digit gain. The cryptocurrency surged nearly 12%, marking its second monthly rise since September 2025. These gains occurred against a backdrop of volatile global events, including the prolonged conflict involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran, alongside the UAE’s departure from OPEC after 59 years.
Oil prices saw a significant increase, with Brent crude reaching $120 per barrel and U.S. WTI climbing to $110, driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East. On Thursday, President Trump was briefed on potential military strategies against Iran by Admiral Brad Cooper of Centcom and General Dan Caine from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as reported by TheIndependent.
Discussions included potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure, operations to control parts of the Strait of Hormuz, and a special forces mission targeting Iran’s enriched uranium. Diplomatic prospects appear bleak, with users on Myriad predicting only a 17% chance of U.S.-Iran talks by May 15, down from 29% earlier in the week.
Bitcoin weathered these tensions, buoyed by steady spot ETF inflows from U.S. investors, leveraged trading positions, and continued acquisitions by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company executed four significant Bitcoin purchases totaling approximately $4.13 billion in April, resulting in a 32% rise in its stock—a first positive monthly performance since July 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $77,350, up 1.9% over the past day according to CoinGecko data. However, not all indicators are optimistic; CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric indicated ongoing contraction throughout April, suggesting a lack of organic spot demand.
“This is one of the clearest on-chain signals that recent price gains are more speculative than structural,” CryptoQuant noted in its report. Orkun Kilic, co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, offered another perspective to Decrypt: “ETF inflows and on-chain demand reflect different facets of Bitcoin’s evolution. For this rally to endure, capital must find productive outlets.”
The divergence between price movement and demand underscores a market where ETF inflows might be obscuring weaker conviction levels. Some recent ETF interest could be linked to cash-and-carry trades—where institutions buy spot Bitcoin ETF shares while shorting CME futures to exploit the spread—a strategy that is neutral rather than bullish, as Decrypt has reported.
“Institutional interest is growing, but not all of it signifies long-term commitment,” Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. Kilic remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects: “It resembles a budding bull market. The signals are increasingly encouraging, with improved regulatory clarity and stronger institutional backing.”