For the first time since September, Bitcoin ETFs have achieved their longest streak of inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT marking its most robust weekly performance in half a year. However, on-chain metrics indicate this rally could be precarious.
As of April 24, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nine consecutive days of inflows, adding $14.45 million and cumulatively bringing the streak to approximately $2.1 billion, based on SoSoValuedata. This marks the most extended such run since September 2025.
The week concluding April 24 saw ETF inflows reach $823.7 million, following two weeks of substantial institutional interest with $996.4 million and $786.3 million, respectively. IBIT led this surge with weekly inflows of $983 million, its most significant in six months.
Despite the robust demand for ETFs, caution is advised as not all indicators are positive. The current rally primarily depends on futures trading rather than spot demand, according to Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant. “Bitcoin’s dynamics are currently futures-driven,” he tweeted. “Although open interest has increased, net apparent on-chain demand remains negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor’s purchases.” He emphasized that historically, bear markets conclude when both spot and futures demands revive.
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, shared similar concerns. “The recent price movements suggest a significant role for short liquidations,” he told Decrypt. “With open interest rising parallel to the prices, it indicates leverage’s contribution to the rally, often hinting that a short squeeze rather than genuine spot demand is driving it.” Liquidation data corroborates this view: since April 13, short liquidations have amounted to about $2.8 billion compared to $1.8 billion in long liquidations per CoinGlass, showing bearish traders caught unawares.
Otychenko noted that as bearish traders continue to increase their short positions, there could still be room for further upward momentum if more shorts are forced to cover. Nevertheless, for the rally’s sustainability, stronger spot demand and increased on-chain activity are essential. Without these, a market correction is possible.
Ju’s observations point out another discrepancy: while ETFs absorb supply, spot buying across exchanges isn’t matching up, indicating futures leverage rather than real spot accumulation. Some of the recent ETF demand might be linked to cash-and-carry trades where institutions buy IBIT shares and short CME futures to exploit the price spread.
This trading strategy is market-neutral and doesn’t necessarily reflect outright bullish sentiment. In these trades, institutions purchase Bitcoin ETFs while hedging their bets by shorting Bitcoin futures on CME, capitalizing on the price difference regardless of Bitcoin’s direction.
Bitcoin’s uncertain upward trajectory is also supported by a negative funding rate, where traders pay fees to keep spot and futures prices aligned. A negative rate indicates bearish positions are being opened. Additionally, the 25-delta skew in options markets, currently between -2% and -5%, suggests investors are paying premiums for downside protection.
“Funding rates are at historical lows while long-term holders show record accumulation levels,” Otychenko noted. “Eventually, one of these groups will be proven incorrect, which usually results in a rapid and decisive market move.”
As spot demand lags behind, Bitcoin’s and the broader crypto market’s outlook remains uncertain. Currently trading at around $77,800, Bitcoin has decreased by 0.2% over the past day but increased about 3.5% over the last week according to CoinGecko data.
Myriad’s prediction market users assign a 75% chance that Bitcoin’s next significant movement could reach $84,000 first. However, short-term sentiment remains bearish with a 42% probability assigned for closing above $78,000 on Monday.