Bitcoin is approaching one of the largest annual options expirations under highly uncertain conditions. CoinGlass data reveals about $8.07 billion in notional open interest for Deribit’s expiring contracts on April 24, encompassing 56,300 calls and 49,540 puts. Although this indicates a bullish trend, it coincides with one of the most volatile macroeconomic periods recently.
This expiry occurs just three days before the Federal Reserve’s meeting from April 28-29 and four days ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis releasing Q1 GDP and March PCE inflation data on April 30. Fed officials have recently warned that oil-related inflation might sustain higher borrowing costs longer than previously anticipated, intensifying market uncertainty.
Deribit now holds approximately $31 billion in total options open interest, surpassing even BlackRock’s IBIT. The April 24 contract displays significant call positioning at the $75,000 strike with around $395 million. Max pain for this contract is near $71,500 to $72,000, about $3,000 to $4,000 below the current Bitcoin price.
Max pain refers to the level where most contracts expire worthless, benefiting sellers like large institutions and market makers. This gap can exert downward pressure as settlement approaches.
The Strait of Hormuz conflict, initiated by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, led to Brent crude surpassing $100 a barrel. An announcement from Iran on April 17 temporarily eased tensions, causing Brent to drop near $89 a barrel and Bitcoin to surge towards the $77,000 to $78,000 range. However, this relief was short-lived as the US seized an Iranian cargo ship bound for the Strait, unraveling diplomatic progress.
The Federal Reserve’s actions in the coming weeks are crucial, especially for Bitcoin. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated last week that oil shocks might maintain underlying inflation around 3% for the year, significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. New York Fed President John Williams echoed this view, noting that energy price increases are already affecting consumer prices.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted two potential outcomes: a swift resolution could allow inflation to approach 2%, paving the way for future rate cuts; however, prolonged conflict might entrench higher inflation across various sectors. Both scenarios remain possible due to fragile ceasefire conditions.
The upcoming Bitcoin options expiry acts as an amplifier of these uncertainties. Large expirations rarely drive prices in a single direction, and recent macro sensitivities have made crypto-native positioning signals less reliable. The specific risk lies in the structural dynamics: a large expiry near the upper range can amplify whichever macro signal emerges first.
Institutions have been reducing Bitcoin exposure to generate yield, shifting risk to market makers. This structural cushion dissolves post-expiry, leaving Bitcoin more susceptible to macro and geopolitical forces.
Waller’s speech on April 17 was likely the final substantive communication from a Fed policymaker before their pre-meeting blackout. The upcoming FOMC decision will arrive without prior guidance since mid-April, with markets interpreting it alongside Q1 GDP and PCE data reflecting the economic impact of the Hormuz closure.
Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next ten days hinges on Friday’s expiry, the Fed’s decision, and these pivotal figures that could reshape the rates outlook. The derivatives market has already positioned itself for the first event; the challenge lies in sustaining this through subsequent developments.