Last week, Bitcoin encountered resistance near the $78,000 mark, as noted by a digital assets strategist from Schwab. Two critical investor cost basis levels might prevent prices from breaking through, despite strong ETF inflows and optimism surrounding ceasefire developments.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,800, a slight dip from its peak of $77,900 last week per CoinGecko data. Over the past 24 hours, it has risen by 2.3%, bolstered by an influx of $1.4 billion into crypto funds—the highest weekly inflow since January.
Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Currencies Research and Strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research, highlighted that Bitcoin’s active investor cost basis in secondary markets is around $78,000, where last week’s rally stalled. A further resistance level exists near $83,000, reflecting the average cost basis across all spot Bitcoin ETPs, which could prompt new investors to sell and minimize losses. Meanwhile, the 200-day simple moving average hovers just above at nearly $87,000.
“These levels suggest that the average Bitcoin investor is currently experiencing a loss,” Ferraioli explained to Decrypt. “Such resistance points may be more significant than moving averages.” Simon Jones, Co-founder and CEO of Reya, believes institutional demand might neutralize selling pressures at these levels, particularly at $83,000 where institutional investors typically engage through regulated products for structural reasons rather than short-term gains.
On the positive side, crypto funds have enjoyed three consecutive weeks of inflows, with U.S.-led contributions leading at $1.5 billion last week, according to CoinShares. The launch of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF this month, followed by Goldman Sachs filing for its own Bitcoin income ETF, has expanded institutional access and bolstered the fundamental outlook.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, noted that institutional demand serves as a dependable catalyst. “April saw multiple strong inflow days, including a $664 million surge on April 17 led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC,” he told Decrypt, marking this cycle as distinct from past retail-driven bubbles.
Yet, challenges remain. The upcoming tax season might lead to portfolio rebalancing that limits gains for risk assets broadly, while the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains delicate.
Users on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, currently assign a 62% probability of oil reaching $120 per barrel next, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, they are optimistic in the medium term, estimating a 74% chance that U.S. President Donald Trump will announce the cessation of military operations against Iran before June.
Ferraioli also mentioned that while a retest of the 50-day SMA could occur, market momentum hinges on the passage of the CLARITY Act. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 has stalled in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee amid disputes over stablecoin yield provisions.
Until legislative clarity is achieved, these resistance levels may keep Bitcoin prices rangebound for some time. Nevertheless, retail investors remain optimistic, assigning a 60% probability that Bitcoin will stay above $76,000 by 4 pm UTC on April 22—an increase from 33.5% just two days prior—indicating that sentiment can shift swiftly if key resistance levels are maintained.