On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) retraced its steps below $80,000 following an unsuccessful attempt to breach that threshold, according to onchain data indicating the rally was facing profit-taking pressures. CryptoQuant noted that despite a 37% recovery from April’s lows, this appears more like a bear-market rebound rather than a definitive trend reversal, as realized profits hit their highest since December and short-term holders are increasingly exiting at gains.
The firm highlighted that traders have moved back into the black, with sell-offs occurring at the swiftest rate since December. Recent buyers are selling during upward trends, suggesting more potential for profit-taking, they observed. Despite these movements, CryptoQuant views this rally as a relief rather than a true bull-market breakout, given that profits remain lower compared to past sustained uptrends and unrealized gains have reached levels likely prompting further sales. Traders currently hold an 18% unrealized profit margin, the most since June 2025—historically a point where profit-taking intensifies.
Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, offered a different perspective by emphasizing macro catalysts behind Bitcoin’s initial surge. They identified the cryptocurrency’s ascent past $80,000 as part of a broader risk-on response following President Donald Trump’s pause on a U.S. naval operation near the Strait of Hormuz, which caused oil prices to drop and equities to rise.
However, Enflux cautioned that markets might overestimate this catalyst’s lasting impact, noting previous diplomatic pauses since March either reversed quickly or were misinterpreted by traders. Conversely, Glassnode presented a more optimistic analysis, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent movement indicates an early structural recovery rather than just a transient macroeconomic bounce. The analytics firm reported Bitcoin had regained two critical on-chain levels: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100—benchmarks that often separate weaker from stronger market phases.
Glassnode pointed to approximately $85,200 as the subsequent significant resistance while highlighting improving U.S. spot ETF inflows and ongoing negative perpetual funding, indicating some traders anticipate downside even amid price recovery. Despite this, Glassnode refrained from declaring a definitive breakout.
As long-term holders begin realizing profits and elevated realized losses across the market persist, Bitcoin requires stronger spot demand to achieve a sustained upward trend. Prediction markets on platforms like OnPolymarket showed similar prudence, assigning low probabilities for Bitcoin cleanly reaching or surpassing $85,000 in the upcoming week, reflecting hesitation in perceiving the rebound as an established breakout.