In Asian trading hours on Thursday, Bitcoin edged up to $74,935, marking a 0.7% increase over the past 24 hours and a weekly gain of 5.4%, as U.S. equities reached unprecedented highs following reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed in principle to extend negotiations beyond next week’s April 7 ceasefire deadline.
The S&P 500 closed up by 0.8% while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.4%, both achieving all-time records, concluding a two-week ascent from late March lows. Ether outperformed major tokens with an 8.1% weekly increase to $2,360, continuing its recent advantage over Bitcoin. XRP saw a 3.6% rise to $1.41, dogecoin increased by 4.8% to $0.098, and solana added 2.2% to reach $85.
However, the equity surge is not mirrored in other markets. Long-end Treasury yields showed little movement, gold remained steady near $4,800, and Brent crude slightly rose to $95 amid a U.S.-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
“Stocks are reflecting their belief that conflict in the Persian Gulf is nearly resolved,” noted Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
In contrast, the crypto derivatives market exhibits less confidence. QCP Capital indicated in a Wednesday Telegram broadcast that Bitcoin’s rally is primarily spot-driven rather than indicative of broader risk re-engagement.
Bitcoin perpetual funding rates remain negative and open interest has softened, suggesting short positions are resisting rather than capitulating to the trend. Front-end implied volatility is subdued, one-month vol trades below three-month levels, and 30-day 25-delta risk reversals still favor downside protection over upside exposure.
Options markets, therefore, signal caution amid spot rallies. The unusually calm cost of Bitcoin options expiring shortly suggests traders are hedging against declines rather than anticipating further gains. This pattern aligns more with a bounce than a trend shift.
Ethereum’s recent performance stands out as it can’t be solely attributed to Bitcoin-specific movements. The ETH/BTC ratio, tracking ether’s price relative to bitcoin, climbed to approximately 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from February’s low near 0.028 and marking the first sustained period of strength against Bitcoin in months.
Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have been outpacing its price for several weeks, with network transactions reaching a Q1 peak of 200.4 million and stablecoin supply hitting an all-time high of $180 billion.
Traders are keeping an eye on upcoming risk-off sessions as indicators. If Ethereum maintains its strength over Bitcoin during a downturn, it would suggest genuine asset rotation; otherwise, it might imply Ethereum is merely benefiting from Bitcoin’s volatility with higher beta.
Additionally, attention is focused on the U.S.-Iran framework and whether discussions concerning the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program will endure beyond next week’s ceasefire deadline. QCP’s view that this represents temporary relief rather than a permanent resolution merits close examination.