Bitcoin reached its highest price point since January earlier this week, and VanEck analysts commented on Friday that they remain optimistic about bullish signals in on-chain data for the leading cryptocurrency. They noted that historically favorable conditions are emerging across several key metrics.
According to a report by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, Bitcoin’s hash rate is currently at 985.5 EH/s over a 30-day moving average, which is a 7.5% drop from its peak of 1,065.7 EH/s in late November. Despite this, the network successfully navigated three significant declines within the past five months.
The latest decline phase concluded on April 15 after 16 days, with a maximum downturn of 6.7%. Historically, such declines have been bullish, as six out of seven hash rate drop episodes resulted in Bitcoin trading higher 90 days later, achieving an average gain of 37.7%.
The analysis also points to negative funding rates as a strong indicator. Since 2020, Bitcoin has averaged returns of 11.5% during 30-day periods with negative funding, compared to overall returns of 4.5%. When the funding rate fell below -5%, returns increased to 19.4% over 30 days and 70% over 180 days.
Currently, transfer volume is at $48.5 billion daily, marking the 81st percentile but showing a 5% decrease month-over-month as positioning changes declined with reduced volatility.
In addition to on-chain metrics, Bitcoin exchange-traded products have seen a significant shift in sentiment. After experiencing five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $4 billion from January 24 through February 21, spot Bitcoin ETPs reported net positive flows for six of the last seven weeks up until April 11. This change suggests that institutional interest in Bitcoin has revived following the initial volatility post-launch.
The firm notes similar patterns in past market cycles, where combinations of hash rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have preceded notable price increases.
As of now, Bitcoin is down about 0.8%, currently trading at $77,397. The cryptocurrency reached above the $79,000 level on Wednesday, showing an increase of over 11% in the past 30 days according to CoinGecko data.