Bitcoin hit a three-month high on Wednesday following reports of potential U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, including safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Axios, citing four informed sources, the White House is close to finalizing a one-page, 14-point memorandum aimed at concluding hostilities. The document, under negotiation by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, proposes ending conflict and initiating detailed discussions over the next 30 days on topics such as Hormuz transit, Iran’s nuclear agenda, and lifting U.S. sanctions.
Separately, reports in Iranian state media suggest that the Revolutionary Guards Navy might permit safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz after a pause in U.S. naval activities. Bitcoin has seen a 1.4% increase over the last 24 hours, now trading at approximately $82,330 as per CoinGecko data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 surged by 0.85%, setting a new record high of 7,366.25.
Contrastingly, West Texas Intermediate crude prices dropped over 10% to $93 per barrel, easing inflationary pressures and altering rate-cut expectations. Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has gained 25%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% rise and gold’s 11% fall.
Bitcoin’s one-day relative strength index reached 71 on Wednesday—the highest in seven months—last recorded when it hit an all-time peak of $126,080. On prediction platform Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users estimate an 87% chance that Bitcoin will rally to $84,000 rather than drop to $55,000, up from 85% on Tuesday.
Sentiment regarding crude oil prices also shifted, with a current 60% likelihood of WTI reaching $120, down from nearly 74% the previous day. Axios notes that while the U.S. anticipates Iranian responses within 48 hours, no formal agreement has been reached yet. Iran has stated it will agree only if terms are deemed fair. Should negotiations fail, U.S. forces retain options to re-establish blockades or undertake military actions.
President Trump highlighted these stakes in a Truth Social post on Wednesday: ‘Assuming Iran agrees to give what’s agreed upon—a significant assumption—the legendary Epic Fury would end, and the effective Blockade will ensure Hormuz Strait remains open for all, including Iran. If not, intensified bombings will commence.’