In the weeks leading up to April, global equity funds attracted significant investments totaling over $118 billion, with inflows of $15.01 billion, $23.47 billion, $31.26 billion, and $48.72 billion in consecutive weeks ending on Apr. 1 and Apr. 22. Concurrently, money-market funds experienced a major outflow of $173.24 billion during the week through Apr. 15, marking the largest single-week cash exit since at least September 2018. These movements signal a $292 billion risk-on shift, merging equity fund inflows with cash exits.
Coinbase and Glassnode’s Q2 Institutional Outlook highlights Bitcoin’s daily return correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.58 for the fourth quarter of 2025, while its relationship with gold remains negligible. This indicates that as capital shifts towards riskier assets, it gravitates towards Bitcoin, which currently exhibits similar market behaviors.
In a survey conducted by Coinbase between Mar. 16 and Apr. 7, involving 91 global investors (29 institutions and 62 non-institutions), 75% of institutional respondents viewed Bitcoin as undervalued, with 61% of non-institutional crypto investors sharing this sentiment. Only 7% of institutions and 11% of non-institutions considered it overvalued.
This data suggests a market where substantial buyers still see potential for further gains. As capital flows into riskier assets, it encounters an asset deemed inexpensive by its most knowledgeable holders, in a market not yet driven by euphoria.
On-chain analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s supply moved within the last three months decreased by 37% during Q1, while supply inactive for over a year increased by 1%. Speculative holders sold off during downturns, allowing long-term holders to accumulate. The Puell Multiple dropped to 0.7 in Q1, indicating miner revenue was about 30% below its one-year average, typically signaling an accumulation phase.
Long-term holder balances grew as exchange balances decreased, and stablecoin supply rose from $308 billion to $320 billion, keeping liquidity within the crypto market during downturns. Options open interest increased by 2.4%, while perpetual futures open interest recovered roughly 8.6%, indicating a market that managed its deleveraging and rebuilt steadily.
The survey’s findings reflect broad sentiment, with institutional investors still seeing potential upside from current Bitcoin levels. Coinbase’s neutral stance for Q2 suggests conditions such as a definitive end to the Middle East conflict, oil retreating, and easing inflation are prerequisites for a more positive outlook. If these do not materialize, Bitcoin’s equity correlation could turn negative.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,000, with potential gains of 12% to 20%, reaching $87,500 to $94,000 if institutional rotation continues. Conversely, macroeconomic challenges like elevated oil prices and persistent inflation could lead to a drawdown of 8% to 15%, bringing Bitcoin down to $66,500 to $72,000.
The outcome for the rest of the quarter hinges on whether April’s equity and credit rotations prove sustainable or reverse due to geopolitical events. The bullish scenario depends on markets embracing more risk while informed Bitcoin holders remain under-represented, allowing for a clean recovery.