Despite a nearly 10% increase this month, Bitcoin (BTC) is encountering resistance around the $75,000 mark while U.S. stocks reach new highs. On-chain data reveals that holders are selling their coins amidst rising prices, contributing to the slowdown.
The realization of profit or loss, an on-chain metric, illustrates whether investors are moving their holdings at a gain or loss by comparing current transaction prices with previous ones (assumed acquisition costs). Values exceeding 1 suggest increased profit-taking. Currently, the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) for this ratio stands significantly above that level, indicating broader trends in realized profits.
“The rise in profit-taking is evident, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, signaling that investors are selling during upward momentum. A sustained price movement beyond $78.1K will necessitate absorbing this supply overhead,” a report states.
Profit-taking intensified on Tuesday when Bitcoin briefly neared $76,000 before retracting below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, approximately $1.14 billion in profits were realized that day, marking one of the highest single-day figures this year.
While widely monitored, this indicator assumes coins being moved are sold, though they might simply be transferred between wallets or exchanges for various reasons such as custody or internal rebalancing.
Nevertheless, recent profit-taking signals align with other metrics like cumulative volume delta (CVD), which indicates more aggressive buying on specific exchanges while activity is subdued elsewhere. Binance sees aggressive buyers, whereas Coinbase and others do not, according to Glassnode.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of GIOTTUS, notes that while sentiment is improving, full conviction hasn’t been established yet. “Funding rates are slightly negative, indicating a cautious stance among traders who aren’t heavily leaning long,” he explains. On-chain activity has decelerated, suggesting market consolidation over overheating.
Additionally, Bitcoin options on Deribit show continued preference for put options across all time frames, reflecting persistent downside concerns and the protective demand for puts.
Overall, profit-taking pressure combined with uneven spot demand and cautious derivatives positioning suggest that while buyers are absorbing supply, they have yet to dominate the market.