Ron Hammond, policy leader at crypto market maker Wintermute, holds a reserved stance on the chances of the Clarity Act passing this year, estimating about a 30% likelihood despite growing momentum in Washington. He described the legislative process as advancing yet inconsistent. The proposed act aims to establish regulatory guidelines for U.S. crypto markets and clarify roles for entities like the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding digital assets.
Hammond’s assessment is in line with other market indicators, such as a Punchbowl survey showing a 26% likelihood and Kalshi’s prediction market indicating near-even odds. This variance highlights ongoing uncertainty about the bill’s progression. Hammond, set to speak at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference next month, acknowledges some progress, noting lawmakers aim to push the bill through committee, potentially voting as soon as April 20. However, he warned these timelines have been fluid for months.
“These dates are moving,” he remarked. “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but there are hurdles along the way.”
The Clarity Act is critical for institutional crypto adoption, aiming to clarify regulations around digital assets as securities or commodities and their trading, custody, and broader regulatory treatment in the U.S. The current fragmented regulatory landscape has deterred large asset managers, banks, and pension funds due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive law would alleviate this ambiguity, encouraging institutions to expand crypto exposure, develop new products, and integrate more deeply with traditional financial systems.
Banks are seen as significant hurdles, particularly over issues like yielding stablecoins. Despite opposition from the Council of Economic Advisers, negotiations stall. Hammond noted efforts by Coinbase, the White House, and drafters to mediate but banks consistently resist compromise. A recent “yield deal” proposal failed to satisfy either side, leading to renewed discussions on a new version.
Hammond stated, “Even with broader macro pressures, it’s hard to see how the banks get happy here.” This resistance influences political dynamics, especially for Democrats balancing crypto industry contributions and legislative support amid unresolved issues like decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.
Further political challenges may arise as scrutiny over former President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency dealings intensifies around June. Hammond suggested this could affect Democratic backing. “All of that becomes another headache,” he noted.
Despite these obstacles, Hammond believes the bill has a slim chance to progress if committee discussions and negotiations continue through midyear when political incentives might shift. He expressed optimism for imminent progress.
For Wintermute, the stakes are significant as it expands its U.S. operations, including growing its New York team, reflecting broader industry interest in a favorable U.S. regulatory environment. Hammond mentioned Wintermute’s recent expansion since the election by establishing a U.S. office and hiring actively in NYC.
“While there’s light at the end of the tunnel,” he added, “passage next year will require breakthroughs that have thus far been elusive.” For now, 30% remains his estimate, reminding us that progress in Washington doesn’t always equate to tangible outcomes.