According to analytics firm Bubblemaps, a group of suspected insiders made over $600,000 from trading contracts tied to the US and Iran ceasefire on Polymarket. This activity was reported on Tuesday, with these accounts also profiting approximately $1.2 million from markets related to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in late February.
“The cluster has been engaging successfully in military market betting since 2024 using various accounts,” a Bubblemaps representative told Decrypt. The accounts “accurately predicted several independent surprise military operations.” Accounts with handles such as ‘djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,’ ‘Elonfax89678,’ and ‘Skoobidoobnj’ are linked to this profitable group, collectively earning about $611,000 on Tuesday when Trump announced a conditional ceasefire.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THEY DID IT AGAIN
Last night, the SAME cluster of Polymarket accounts made $600k predicting the US-Iran ceasefire, before changing their handles
Why are they hiding? https://t.co/GBVkgqQniipic.twitter.com/Fe0pqZKkco
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) April 8, 2026
The bulk of these profits arose from markets predicting a ceasefire occurring before April 7 and April 15. However, these accounts collectively lost nearly $50,000 on trades anticipating a ceasefire prior to March 31.
Bubblemaps noted that the large wager size does not necessarily indicate possession of privileged information. “We can only say for certain that these bets were substantial and well-timed,” said a Bubblemaps representative. The firm also emphasized it cannot confirm if the Polymarket accounts belong to insiders.
“Their track record in correctly predicting surprise attacks on Iran suggests they might have access to superior information,” Bubblemaps posted on X, despite their not always perfect win rate on ceasefires.
Insider trading on prediction markets has garnered significant scrutiny recently. For instance, California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized Trump’s administration for ethical failures and insider profiteering, resulting in an executive order banning political appointees from profiting on such markets with inside information.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have taken steps to combat insider trading. Last month, both improved their measures against the practice; Kalshi implemented preemptive screening that bans politicians from related trades. Previously, a trader gained over $430,000 by predicting the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, leading to further scrutiny.
In another case, two Israelis were arrested for trading based on military secrets. Additionally, Kalshi suspended and later dismissed a video editor working with YouTube personality MrBeast after discovering they used inside information for market gains.