A Polymarket trader executed highly-timed trades, securing hundreds of thousands of dollars by accurately predicting former President Joe Biden’s final pardons. On-chain data analysis has uncovered these transactions.
On the last day of his presidency, two linked Polymarket accounts successfully predicted four out of five individuals Biden pardoned in his concluding hours at the White House. Remarkably, none of their predictions were off-target; despite odds nearing zero as Biden’s term ended, they increased their stakes.
The combined profits from these pardon-related bets reached $320,000, with a 100% success rate on such markets. Blockchain investigators at Bubblemaps identified the connection between the two accounts this week.
Previously: 🇺🇸 A trader earned over $300,000 by flawlessly predicting Biden’s last-minute pardons:
Adam Schiff, Hunter Biden, among others were predicted correctly — https://t.co/Ozxo0jairi
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) April 16, 2026
The accounts accurately forecasted pardons for anti-Trump Republicans Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, California Senator Adam Schiff, and Joe Biden’s brother, Jim Biden. Additionally, they bet the previous month that Hunter Biden would receive a pardon.
Bets placed on January 20 had extremely low odds due to Biden nearing the end of his presidential powers. For example, the likelihood of pardoning Adam Schiff was only 6% when one account wagered on it.
A $21,711 bet on Jim Biden’s pardon, with just an 11% chance of success at that time, quickly returned a $198,220 profit.
This revelation follows scrutiny over suspicious bets made during the Trump administration, often preceding significant White House actions or announcements. These trades amassed billions in profits and prompted the White House to advise staff against betting on sensitive topics like the Iran conflict.
Earlier Thursday, CFTC Chair Mike Selig faced criticism during a congressional hearing for his hesitance to investigate such trades if they involved President Trump’s associates.
A Bubblemaps analyst told Decrypt that the suspicious Biden pardon trading resembles patterns scrutinized in recent years under the second Trump administration. “For dubious trades, we look for large, well-timed bets across several linked accounts,” the analyst explained. “This pattern was evident in the Biden pardon scenario.”