U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his disapproval over the increasing prominence of prediction markets on Thursday, following charges against a soldier for using classified information to place lucrative bets regarding Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s removal.
Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump remarked, “You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino and you look at what’s going on all over the world in Europe and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favour of it.”
When asked about concerns regarding potential insider trading on prediction markets linked to war, Trump reiterated his view: “The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” as reported by The Bulwark.
“I don’t like it conceptually but it is what it is. I think that I’m not happy with it,” Trump added, noting the rise in various predictive sites and describing the current environment as “a crazy world, a much different world than it was.” His son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as an advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket, promoting their utility during elections despite clarifying through a CNN spokesperson that he does not trade on these markets or interact with the federal government on behalf of either company.
Trump previously owned a casino empire in the 1980s before facing multiple bankruptcies. Meanwhile, prediction market Myriad, part of Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, uses USD1 stablecoins from Trump-backed DeFi platform World Liberty Financial for settlements.
According to TRM Labs, monthly trading volume on these markets surged from about $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion by January 2026, with activity focusing increasingly on geopolitics and elections.
Attention intensified this week when federal prosecutors charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army soldier, for utilizing classified information regarding “Operation Absolute Resolve” to profit from Polymarket contracts linked to U.S. involvement in Venezuela and Maduro’s ousting. Allegedly earning over $400,000, Van Dyke reportedly placed approximately $33,000 on 13 bets predicting U.S. military action and Maduro’s removal before the end of January.
Following the operation’s public disclosure and his market wins, Van Dyke attempted to obscure his identity by deleting accounts and moving funds through cryptocurrency channels. He now faces charges including misuse of confidential information, wire fraud, and commodities fraud. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche emphasized that laws concerning classified material are applicable irrespective of prediction markets’ novelty.
Despite legal and regulatory challenges, companies like Polymarket and Kalshi argue their platforms serve as financial tools for forecasting probabilities rather than traditional gambling services.
Decrypthas contacted the White House and Polymarket for comments and will update this article if responses are received.