A monumental stock-market debut is poised to happen in six weeks, with significant implications for cryptocurrency markets sharing a common liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 form with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
Should it list near this target value in its anticipated June IPO, the offering would surpass Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record by more than 2.5 times, marking the largest debut ever. Traders on Polymarket assign a 65% probability to a June listing and a 53% chance that SpaceX’s first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone in this endeavor. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, plans for a Q4 debut with an estimated valuation nearing $1 trillion. Meanwhile, Anthropic is preparing for an October listing expected to raise over $60 billion.
Collectively, should these three companies go public as planned from June through year-end, they could amass more than $240 billion, exceeding the total of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
“After SpaceX’s IPO, equities could become very bearish—akin to Solana’s $300 moment,” Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, remarked during a recent CounterParty TV interview. His comparison highlights the mechanical setup where three significant listings might occur in a six-month span, with optimistic predictions from banks preceding them and subsequent capital rotation out.
MSCI, which constructs many institutional portfolios’ benchmark indexes, modeled a scenario in February predicting that megacap IPOs by 2026 could prompt index-driven flows worth billions of dollars, sector-rotation effects across global benchmarks, and liquidity compression for all but the new entrants.
Cryptocurrency markets, including bitcoin and ether, reside within this risk-on liquidity pool alongside tech and AI equities. Over recent cycles, these crypto assets have shown tightening correlations with Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes. As speculative capital shifts from equities to IPO allocations, part of what exits could be the same funds that previously drove demand for high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies.
Historically, Coinbase’s April 14, 2021, listing coincided with bitcoin’s peak at approximately $64,800, followed by a 50% decline within six weeks. Mainstream traders interpreted Coinbase’s IPO as an entry point into crypto, only to witness mainstream capital exit over the following six months. Such institutional milestones often signal market tops rather than beginnings, as they involve the same funds that previously sustained asset prices.
While SpaceX isn’t directly linked to crypto, two aspects of its IPO relate to cryptocurrency flows. First is a 30% retail allocation, amounting to roughly $22 billion of the total offering—three times larger than typical for such a sizeable deal. This indicates retail investment in SpaceX that might otherwise be directed toward cryptocurrencies like memecoins or bitcoin.
Additionally, SpaceX holds approximately 8,285 BTC, valued at about $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody. This marks its IPO as the first public-market debut by a company with significant bitcoin holdings under new fair-value accounting rules effective since late 2024.
The forthcoming months will test whether cryptocurrency markets can maintain their momentum through SpaceX’s roadshow or start declining as capital is allocated to the IPO. Conversely, if bitcoin rallies during this period, it might indicate a decoupling from broader risk-on flows, driven by spot-ETF demand.
Coinbase’s 2021 peak absorbed $86 billion in market cap on its listing day. In contrast, SpaceX at $75 billion represents not a scaled-up Coinbase but rather a distinct event within a market that has had five years to digest such occurrences. Whether the crypto markets will learn from past events or repeat them remains visible through forthcoming trading patterns.