Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, declared on X on Thursday that the crypto winter is over. His assertion came as bitcoin prices maintained a level above $78,000, a milestone first achieved early on April 22 according to CoinDesk data.
In an image reminiscent of ‘Game of Thrones,’ Saylor was seen wearing fur and riding horseback, humorously dressed for a time when winter supposedly ends. This visual accompanied the announcement that his company recently added 13,927 bitcoin to its holdings, totaling 780,897 BTC in Strategy’s treasury. However, not all crypto analysts concur with this sentiment.
“Even if the winter is over for bitcoin, which I don’t agree with, it remains quite harsh for altcoins,” commented Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam.
Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, believes that recent events in the crypto market since the October 10 “flash crash” do not amount to a full-blown winter. The flash crash led to approximately $19 billion in forced liquidations within 24 hours. “I’m not sure I would classify what we just saw as a crypto winter exactly,” Greenspan remarked, describing it instead as “a significant pullback within an ongoing bull market.”
Despite some skepticism, Greenspan aligns with Saylor’s implication that bitcoin has hit its nadir and is poised for upward movement. “Yes, I think it’s very likely we’ve seen the bottom,” he stated.
Greenspan and other experts suggest that Saylor’s remarks, along with his firm’s continued bitcoin acquisitions, indicate a shift towards an era dominated by institutional bitcoin treasuries and changing institutional attitudes.
However, institutional adoption is just one element of this transition. “Yes, increased institutional adoption will trigger the next phase, but what Saylor overlooks is nation-state adoption, which is likely imminent,” Greenspan added.
Greenspan pointed out that there have been three distinct crypto adoption cycles so far: early adopters in 2013, a retail surge in 2017, and current institutional adoption. He anticipates the next major shift to be driven by nation-states, especially with significant U.S. policy changes during Donald Trump’s second term.
“Imagine central banks integrating bitcoin into their balance sheets for price stability, akin to past gold additions,” Greenspan suggested.
Nation-state adoption is already taking tangible steps towards becoming reality on government balance sheets. Under Trump’s administration, plans were made for a strategic U.S. bitcoin reserve, though it remains unofficial and inactive; the U.S. holds about 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues its daily purchases toward a 7,500 BTC treasury, while China and the U.K. have holdings of approximately 190,000 BTC and 61,000 BTC, respectively. Additionally, sub-sovereign entities like Wisconsin and New Jersey are exploring bitcoin inclusion in public pension funds.