In the past eight days, investors have funneled $2.1 billion into bitcoin via U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue data. This marks the longest inflow streak since a nine-day surge in October 2025 that propelled bitcoin to its peak of $126,000. On April 23 alone, these funds saw an influx of $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing approximately 75% at $167.49 million and Fidelity’s FBTC experiencing notable outflows of $16.93 million.
During this period, bitcoin’s price rose from $68,000 to $77,000, a gain of 12%, closely aligning with the ETF inflows. Since their inception, cumulative net inflows into these funds have reached $58 billion, bringing total assets under management to $102 billion, or 6.5% of bitcoin’s market cap.
However, data from the ETFs doesn’t capture everything. An AGlassnode report indicated that bitcoin reclaimed its True Market Mean at $78,100 earlier this week. This metric reflects the average cost basis of actively traded supply and signifies a shift from bear-market conditions to potentially more positive ones for the first time since mid-January.
Yet, there’s another hurdle. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is currently at $80,100, representing the entry price for those who bought in the last 155 days. Surpassing this level would put over 54% of recent buyers into profit territory. Historically, reaching this threshold has coincided with local market peaks as short-term holders cash out after breaking even.
Short-term holder realized profits have surged to $4.4 million per hour, according to Glassnode. This figure is three times the $1.5 million level that preceded every local peak so far this year.
The path forward involves specific conditions. Bitcoin perpetual funding remains negative, indicating shorts are covering their positions by paying longs. A recent short squeeze pushed bitcoin briefly to $78,000 before a reversal at the Hormuz Strait brought prices back down.
A second squeeze, combining ETF inflows and recovering spot demand on offshore markets as noted by Glassnode, could provide a clear route to $80,000. Whether this level can withstand distribution from short-term sellers or will succumb like previous local peaks remains uncertain.
The current streak echoes March’s seven-day run that ended around its peak price for the month. IBIT has been the main driver of the recent inflows, while smaller issuers have seen varied flows. While the patterns are not identical, they share similarities. The presence of a genuine ETF bid and the liquidity it offers to short-term holders exiting their positions is clear. Watching which side prevails at $80,000 will be crucial.