A trader on Polymarket reaped a significant windfall by exploiting a scoring error in a UFC bout. This marks the second such incident within two weeks, where UFC announcer Bruce Buffer misread the outcome of a fight, enabling this trader’s $500 bet to swell to more than $252,000. The substantial gain marked his most profitable trade since joining Polymarket in January.
During UFC 327 held in Miami, American lightweight Chris Padilla was initially declared the winner over MarQuel Mederos, as announced by Buffer before millions of viewers on talkSPORT. However, commentator Jon Adik later corrected this during a commercial break, stating that the bout had been judged a “majority draw.”
Following the initial announcement, Polymarket’s system had pegged Padilla with a 99.9% chance of victory, effectively sealing his win. After the correction, odds were adjusted to 50%, reflecting the actual result. The trader who bet on Mederos, when he was deemed to have just a 0.1% chance of winning, saw an approximate increase in value by 50,000%. Conversely, those betting on Padilla faced losses as his victory was nullified.
This incident underscores how elements beyond athletes’ performances can influence odds in sporting events like UFC matches. Errors from key broadcasters such as Buffer can significantly impact prediction markets, even if the information is incorrect.
The trader, identified on Polymarket as JESUSCHRISTISGOOD, acted swiftly after catching the mistake. They referenced an X account explaining how they verified the fight’s official scorecard and calculated that points had been incorrectly awarded to Padilla.
While prediction market skeptics like journalist Dustin Gourker have questioned why such platforms might misrepresent outcomes, this trader’s actions demonstrate foresight in anticipating a correction.
In response, Polymarket, alongside its chief rival Kalshi, has indicated plans to enhance systems for monitoring unusual transactions. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers argue these platforms need stricter regulations to prevent insider trading and market manipulation.
Recently, Polymarket announced a partnership with Major League Baseball aimed at safeguarding the game’s integrity, involving frameworks with entities like the CFTC. The UFC also established an agreement with Polymarket last November, following similar partnerships by the NHL.
“By integrating prediction markets into broadcasts and arenas, we offer fans a novel way to engage beyond mere observation,” stated Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. “They can now track evolving expectations round by round.”